[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 PM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Leslie centered near 33.0N 28.0W at 12/1500 UTC or 300
nm S of the Azores moving ENE at 28 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75
kt with gusts to 90 kt. The government of Portugal has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for Madeira Island. A fast east-
northeastward motion is expected to continue through Saturday
morning, followed by a slower eastward motion late Saturday
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will
pass north of Madeira Island on Saturday, and approach the
southwestern portion of the Iberian Peninsula on Sunday, and move
inland over portions of the Iberian Peninsula late Sunday. Some
gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie
could transition into a post-tropical low by late Saturday/early
Sunday. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
31N-36N between 24W-29W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Nadine centered near 16.0N 36.2W at 12/1500 UTC
or 690 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at
7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. A west-
northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected through the weekend. Weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Nadine is expected to dissipate by
Sunday. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
15N-21N between 31W-36W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 53W from 07N-21N based on the satellite
imagery and observations, moving west at around 5-10 kt. Maximum
in Total Precipitable Water is noted with the wave. At this time,
scattered showers are near the wave axis from 11N-14N between
48W-55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 10N14W to
08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 05N33W to 10N51W. Aside
from the convection related to Nadine and the tropical wave,
scattered showers are noted within 150 nm on either side of the
ITCZ between 22W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin from 28N83W to 23N88W to
24N98W, then becomes stationary across northeastern Mexico.
Scattered showers are along the front mainly west of 90W. This
front will continue moving southeast reaching S Florida by Saturday.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate northerly winds
north of the front while light to gentle southerly winds prevail
south of the front. To the southwest, scattered moderate
convection is over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico mainly
south of 23N and west of 96W. A surface trough extends from 23N97W
to 19N95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is over the W Caribbean near 17N81W with trough
extending diagonally west of 75W. A surface trough extends from
19N87W to 16N86W. A Central American Gyre is developing in the
southwest Caribbean enhancing convection east of 82W. Another
surface trough extends from 17N78W to 14N78W. To the south, the
monsoon trough extends along 12N between 73W-83W with scattered
moderate convection. To the east, a diffluent flow aloft prevails
over the northeast Caribbean enhancing convection across the
waters south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

Expect moderate trade winds to prevail across the eastern
Caribbean Sea through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for information on Hurricane Leslie, Tropical
Storm Nadine, and the tropical wave along 53W.

Michael has transitioned into an extratropical cyclone.

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N75W to
29N81W. Scattered to numerous showers prevail across and south of
the front from 25N-31N between 70W-78W. To the east, a 1019 mb
high is centered near 30N52W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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