[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Michael is centered near 32.3N 83.6W at 11/0400
UTC or 26 nm SSW of Macon Georgia moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. A motion toward the northeast at a
faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday through Friday night.
On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move across
southwestern and central Georgia overnight, and move through
east-central Georgia Thursday morning. Michael will then move
northeastward across the southeastern United States through late
Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early
Friday. Michael is forecast to re-strengthen some Thursday night
and Friday when it moves off the east coast of the United States
and becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. A Storm Surge
Warning is in effect from Panama City Florida to Keaton Beach
Florida. Presently, scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 28N-36N between 81W-87W to include the NE Gulf of Mexico.
The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for MICHAEL are available via the WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES for MICHAEL are available via the WMO header
WTNT24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Hurricane Leslie is centered near 27.9N 41.1W at 11/0300 UTC or
930 nm SW of the Azores moving ENE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt
with gusts to 85 kt. A ENE general motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected over the next few days. Little change
in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, with weakening
forecast over the weekend. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 26N-32N between 37W-43W. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES
for LESLIE are available via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via
the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are
available via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT3.

Tropical Storm Nadine is centered near 13.6N 32.7W at 11/0300 UTC
or 490 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at
7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. A NW motion is
anticipated during the next day or so. A turn toward the west-
northwest or west is forecast to occur on Friday. Gradual
weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nadine
is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the
weekend. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
11N-16N between 29W-33W. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for NADINE are
available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header
MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for NADINE are available via
the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 05N-19N
moving west around 10 kt. A maximum in Total Precipitable Water is
noted with the wave. A 700 mb trough is noted east of the wave
axis near 48W. There is no convection near the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W S of 18N to Panama.
Movement is westward around 10 kt. A 700 mb trough axis is
depicted by model analysis. Total Precipitable Water imagery also
indicates enhanced moisture. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 04N-20N between 69W-76W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 11N15W to 07N18W to
07N24W. The monsoon trough resumes west of Tropical Storm Nadine
near 11N35W to 09N40W to 11N50W. The ITCZ extends from 10N55W to
10N61W. Other than the convection mentioned above associated with
Nadine, scattered moderate to strong convection is along the
coast of W Africa from 08N-12N between 12W-18W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 11N-15N between 43W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.S Michael is inland over Georgia. Convection over the NE Gulf
persists. Storm surge warnings are still in effect over a small
portion of the Florida Panhandle. Conditions will gradually
improve tonight. Elsewhere, a cold front is just off the Texas
coast moving SE. The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle
to west-central Gulf by early Sat. In addition, scattered moderate
to strong convection is over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico S of
20N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean S of Jamaica with
convection E of the axis.

An upper level low is over the W Caribbean near 15N81W. An upper
level high is over the E Caribbean near 12N68W. Upper level
moisture covers the entire Caribbean.

Expect moderate tradewinds to prevail across the eastern
Caribbean Sea through Friday. Moderate NE swell from Hurricane
Leslie will move through the Atlantic waters and Caribbean
passages Thu and Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Leslie, and Tropical Storm Nadine.

A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 34N64W.
Another 1018 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 24N26W

An upper level low is centered N of the Leeward Islands near
22N64W with strong subsidence.

http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine


$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net