[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 17
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL142018
523 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**MICHAEL WILL AFFECT EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS A TROPICAL STORM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect
      for Outer Banks Dare and Outer Banks Hyde
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Beaufort, Carteret,
      Craven, Duplin, Greene, Jones, Lenoir, Mainland Dare, Mainland
      Hyde, Martin, Onslow, Pamlico, Pitt, Tyrrell, and Washington

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 630 miles west-southwest of Buxton NC or about 550 miles
      west-southwest of Morehead City NC
    - 30.9N 85.1W
    - Storm Intensity 125 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 25 degrees at 16 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Michael made landfall in Mexico Beach early this
afternoon as a major hurricane along the Florida Panhandle, then will
weaken to a tropical storm as it tracks towards the Carolinas Thursday
and Thursday night.

Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected across
Eastern North Carolina later Thursday afternoon through early Friday.
The strongest winds are expected near the coast and areas adjacent to
the sounds. Winds along the coast could gust 50 to 70 mph, while
inland areas could see gusts of 40 to 50 mph. These winds could result
in downed trees causing sporadic power outages, and even some minor
structural damage. Be sure to secure any tarps on rooftops from
previous storm damage.

Periods of heavy rain are expected today through late Thursday night.
At this time rainfall is expected to range from 1 to 2 inches near the
coast to 2 to 3 inches well inland, with locally higher amounts. This
could result in localized flash flooding given the already saturated
ground and debris from Florence potentially clogging drainages. River
levels along the Tar and Neuse are expected to reach minor flood stage
late this weekend and early next week, then reach to moderate flooding
by the mid to late next week.

Some minor to moderate storm surge impacts will be possible with
Michael. Based on the current forecast track, minor inundation of 1 to
3 feet above ground level will be possible for areas along the coast
and adjacent to the sounds. Local amounts of 2 to 4 feet above ground
may be possible on the sound side of the Outer Banks, especially north
of Cape Hatteras late Thursday night and early Friday as Michael lifts
north of the area. A slight shift in the track could change which
locations may see the most inundation. Minor beach erosion and
overwash will be possible along the beaches as well due to wave run
up.

A few tornadoes will be possible Thursday and Thursday night.

Dangerous marine conditions are also expected, with seas building to
10 to 20 feet. A high threat of rip currents and large and dangerous
shore break is expected.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts
include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across Eastern North Carolina, especially for the sound
side of the Outer Banks north of Cape Hatteras. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal areas of Eastern North Carolina.

Elsewhere across Eastern North Carolina, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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