[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 102042
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

Leslie has held nearly steady since this morning. Recent microwave
data indicate that the cyclone still has a fairly well-defined
inner-core that has persisted, though the deepest convection has
fluctuated since last night. Satellite intensity estimates have
fluctuated with the convection, but still support an initial value
of 65 kt for this advisory. The last few IR and visible images
before sunset suggest that Leslie may be developing a banding eye,
and it's possible the intensity estimate is a little conservative.

The track uncertainty is hopefully beginning to decrease a little.
The most recent GFS and ECMWF ensembles are converging on a solution
where Leslie accelerates east-northeastward on the south side of a
mid-latitude trough, before separating from the trough over the
weekend. The cyclone could then turn southward, and eventually back
westward as a much weaker tropical cyclone or remnant low. This is
generally consistent with previous NHC forecasts, so no large
changes were required to the NHC forecast which is heavily based on
the HFIP Corrected Consensus.

Leslie is still expected to strengthen soon, and there has been no
significant change to the intensity forecast. By 72 h, if not
sooner, the hurricane will begin to encounter colder ocean waters
and high shear, which should cause it to weaken. If Leslie follows
the forecast track, it is possible that the system could become a
post-tropical remnant low by early next week, and this is forecast
by some of the global models. However, this is not explicitly shown
in the NHC forecast and Leslie's strength and status early next week
will likely heavily depend on its track at that time. The official
forecast is close to the intensity consensus at all forecast hours,
and the intensity model spread is not very large.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 27.8N  41.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 28.0N  40.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 29.0N  38.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 30.4N  33.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 31.5N  28.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 32.0N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 30.0N  21.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 27.0N  26.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net