[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KGSP 101529
HLSGSP
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-102330-

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC  AL142018
1129 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

This product covers the western Carolinas and NE Georgia

**Michael will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the western
Carolinas and Northeast Georgia**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Chester, Laurens, Union, Union, and York

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Abbeville, Chester,
      Elbert, Greenwood, Laurens, Union, Union, and York

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 500 miles southwest of Charlotte NC or about 440 miles
      south-southwest of Greenville/Spartanburg SC
    - 29.4N 86.0W
    - Storm Intensity 145 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Michael is forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane
near Panama City, Florida this afternoon. Michael is forecast to track
northeastward across Georgia as a Tropical Storm, with the center of
the circulation likely passing near Augusta, Georgia and Columbia,
South Carolina tomorrow, then on to near Raleigh, North Carolina by
Thursday evening. Windy conditions and very heavy rainfall are
expected to impact part of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia
as the storm passes just south and east of the area.

The greatest threat that Michael will pose for our area currently
appears to be flash flooding. Based on the most likely track of the
storm, the heaviest rainfall totals are expected to be along and south
of Interstate 85, with a secondary maximum along the Blue Ridge
escarpment in North Carolina. The Charlotte metro area is at
particular risk of flash flooding, due to very high rainfall rates
developing tomorrow along with excessive urban runoff. Areas that
flooded during heavy rainfall last month with Tropical Storm Florence
may flood again during Michael.

Winds will pick up in speed overnight tonight and peak during the day
tomorrow. A few tropical-storm force gusts are possible. There is also
a risk of isolated tornadoes in the lower Piedmont during this time.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
south and east of I-85. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across eastern Upstate South Carolina and southwest
North Carolina Piedmont, including Charlotte. Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
      ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
      destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
      increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood
      control systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across western Upstate South Carolina, northeast
Georgia, and the mountains and foothills of western North Carolina.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the lower Piedmont of South Carolina and northeast Georgia.
Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across the western Carolinas and NE Georgia, little to no
impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:


WATCH/WARNING PHASE - If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind
and allow extra time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit.
Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Greenville-Spartanburg SC around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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