[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 101450
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Michael is an extremely impressive hurricane in visible and infrared
satellite imagery this morning. The eye has continued to warm and
become even more distinct, while remaining embedded within an area
of very cold cloud tops. Data from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the pressure has continued to fall
this morning and is now around 928 mb. Flight-level, SFMR, and NWS
WSR-88D Doppler wind data all support an intensity of 125 kt. The
hurricane only has a few hours left over water during which
additional intensification is possible. Recent radar imagery
suggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could
slow or halt the intensification process. Although steady weakening
is predicted once the hurricane moves inland, the core of Michael
will bring hurricane-force winds well inland over the Florida
Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. As the
circulation emerges over the western Atlantic, intensification due
to baroclinic process is expected, and Michael should complete its
transition to an extratropical low by 48 hours when it is off the
U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The system is predicted to remain a
powerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic through at
least day 4.

Aircraft and radar fixes show that Michael has made its much
anticipated north-northeastward turn, and the hurricane is expected
to make landfall along the coast of the Florida Panhandle early this
afternoon. Michael should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate
as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude flow while moving
across the southeast U.S. through Thursday night. The cyclone is
forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic on Friday, and move
rapidly eastward-northeastward across the north Atlantic this
weekend. The track guidance remains in excellent agreement, and the
updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory.

Tropical storm warnings have been extended northward along the U.S.
East Coast to Duck, North Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings,
and advisories will be issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards
north of Duck, North Carolina, as Michael is expected to be
post-tropical when it affects those areas.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the
Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge
is expected later today and tonight between Tyndall Air Force Base
and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 14 feet of inundation is possible.

2. Michael will produce potentially catastrophic wind damage
where the core of the hurricane moves onshore later today in the
Florida Panhandle, with the highest risk between Apalachicola and
Panama City.

3. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will occur well inland
across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia as the core of the hurricane moves inland
later today and this evening.

4. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

5. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast
U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 29.4N  86.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 31.3N  84.7W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/1200Z 33.6N  82.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  12/0000Z 35.8N  78.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  12/1200Z 38.7N  71.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  13/1200Z 45.5N  52.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  14/1200Z 49.0N  29.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  15/1200Z 50.0N  13.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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