[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 101043
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-102000-

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Mobile AL  AL142018
543 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

**Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Michael will make landfall this
afternoon in the Florida Panhandle**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Storm Surge Watch has been cancelled for Escambia Coastal,
      Okaloosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Coastal

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baldwin Central,
      Baldwin Coastal, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw,
      Escambia, Escambia Inland, Mobile Central, Mobile Coastal, and
      Santa Rosa Inland
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Escambia Coastal, Okaloosa
      Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, and Santa Rosa Coastal

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 190 miles south-southeast of Mobile AL or about 140 miles
      south of Destin FL
    - 28.3N 86.5W
    - Storm Intensity 140 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 4:00 AM CDT, Hurricane Michael was located near latitude
24.1 North, longitude 85.9 West with maximum sustained winds of
140 mph. This makes Michael an extremely dangerous Category
4 hurricane. Michael is north at 13 mph and a turn to the north-north
is expected prior to reaching the coast. Hurricane Michael is forecast
to make landfall this afternoon in the vicinity of Panama City as an
extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane.

Tropical Storm Force Winds should spread inland across our coastal
counties of the western Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama this
morning. Tropical Storm Force winds will spread across inland portions
of the Florida Panhandle and south central Alabama, to the east of
I-65, by late this morning and persist through early evening.
Hurricane Force Winds will be possible along the coastal western
Florida Panhandle from late morning through early evening. Winds will
gradually diminish from west to east Wednesday evening.

The threat for storm surge has diminished across the area, with
inundation between 1 foot along the Alabama coast including Mobile
Bay, to 1.5 to 2.5 feet along coastal locations in the western Florida
Panhandle. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for the entire
coastline of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle from Destin
westward.

Heavy rainfall will also be possible across eastern portions of the
forecast area, with the potential for localized flash flooding.

Strong winds, coastal flooding, and heavy rainfall will begin across
locations in the Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warning areas this
morning.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across the western Florida Panhandle and south central Alabama. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across southwestern Alabama.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across Covington county, Alabama, and Okaloosa county,
Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal Alabama and coastal areas of the western
Florida Panhandle. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to
move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate,
help keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
  refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
  or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
  www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 11 AM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

JLH
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