[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL142018
536 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**MICHAEL WILL AFFECT EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS A TROPICAL STORM
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Beaufort, Carteret,
      Craven, Duplin, Greene, Jones, Lenoir, Mainland Dare, Mainland
      Hyde, Martin, Onslow, Outer Banks Dare, Outer Banks Hyde,
      Pamlico, Pitt, Tyrrell, and Washington

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 800 miles west-southwest of Buxton NC or about 720 miles
      southwest of Morehead City NC
    - 28.3N 86.5W
    - Storm Intensity 140 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane
along the Florida Panhandle today, then weaken to a tropical storm as
it tracks through the Carolinas Thursday and Thursday night.

Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected across
Eastern North Carolina later Thursday afternoon through early Friday.
The strongest winds are expected near the coast and areas adjacent to
the sounds. Winds along the coast could gust 50 to 70 mph, while inland
areas could see gusts of 40 to 50 mph. These winds could result in downed
trees causing sporadic power outages, and even some minor structural
damage. Be sure to secure any tarps on rooftops from previous storm
damage.

Periods of heavy rain are expected today through late Thursday night.
At this time rainfall is expected to range from 2 to 3 inches near the
coast to 3 to 5 inches well inland, with locally higher amounts. This
could result in localized flash flooding given the already saturated
ground and debris from Florence potentially clogging drainages. River
levels along the Tar and Neuse are expected to reach moderate flood
stage late this weekend and early next week.

Some minor to locally moderate storm surge impacts will be possible
with Michael. Based on the current forecast track, minor inundation of
1 to 3 feet above ground level will be possible for areas along the
coast and adjacent to the sounds. Local amounts of 2 to 4 feet above
ground may be possible on the sound side of the Outer Banks,
especially north of Cape Hatteras late Thursday night and early Friday
as Michael lifts north of the area. A slight shift in the track could
change which locations may see the most inundation. Minor beach
erosion and overwash will be possible along the beaches as well due to
wave run up.

A few tornadoes will be possible Thursday and Thursday night.

Dangerous marine conditions are also expected, with seas building to
10 to 20 feet. A high threat of rip currents and large and dangerous
shore break is expected.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A
Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across portions of Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts
include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across coastal areas of Eastern North Carolina, especially for the sound
side of the Outer Banks north of Cape Hatteras. Potential impacts in this
area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.
Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 12 PM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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