[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KILM 100913
HLSILM
NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059-101715-

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Wilmington NC  AL142018
513 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

This product covers southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina

**HURRICANE MICHAEL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS A TROPICAL
STORM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Bladen, Central Horry, Coastal Brunswick, Coastal
      Georgetown, Coastal Horry, Coastal New Hanover, Coastal Pender,
      Columbus, Darlington, Dillon, Florence, Inland Brunswick,
      Inland Georgetown, Inland New Hanover, Inland Pender, Marion,
      Marlboro, Northern Horry, Robeson, and Williamsburg

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bladen, Central
      Horry, Coastal Brunswick, Coastal Georgetown, Coastal Horry,
      Coastal New Hanover, Coastal Pender, Columbus, Darlington,
      Dillon, Florence, Inland Brunswick, Inland Georgetown, Inland
      New Hanover, Inland Pender, Marion, Marlboro, Northern Horry,
      Robeson, and Williamsburg

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 660 miles southwest of Wilmington NC or about 580 miles
      southwest of Myrtle Beach SC
    - 28.3N 86.5W
    - Storm Intensity 140 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Michael will move across northeast South Carolina and
southeast North Carolina Thursday into Thursday night as a tropical
storm. Wind gusts to tropical storm force will occur with the
highest gusts along the coast and the adjacent Atlantic waters. The
overly saturated ground and weakened trees will still allow for an
elevated wind risk and some power outages will occur. Flash flooding
will also be possible though the storm's rapid motion should limit
rainfall amounts.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina.
Potential impacts include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding, along with damage to porches
      and awnings. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and
      garage door failures. Damage to vulnerable structures such as
      carports, sheds and mobile homes is possible.
    - Large limbs will be down with several trees snapped or
      uprooted. Several fences and roadway signs may become blown
      over. Some roads may become impassable due to large debris
      blocking the roadway, especially within urban or heavily wooded
      locations. Some bridges, causeways, and elevated roads may be
      impacted by high winds making driving on them hazardous.
    - Scattered power and communications outages are possible, but
      more prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
    - Small craft that are not properly moored may break loose.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina.
Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate flooding from rainfall may prompt some evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and streams may rise and overspill their banks in a few
      places, especially in the typical prone locations. Small creeks
      and ditches may overflow.
    - Flood waters may enter some structures. Underpasses, low-lying
      spots along roadways, and poor drainage areas may become
      submerged by rising water. Some secondary streets and parking
      lots may flood as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
    - Driving conditions will become hazardous, and some road
      closures can be expected.

Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across southeast North Carolina and northeast South
Carolina.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina.
Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Tornadoes can cause damage to trees, vehicles, boats, and
      buildings. Unsecured mobile homes and poorly constructed
      structures are particularly vulnerable.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation and minor over-wash is possible, mainly
      along immediate shorelines and other vulnerable low-lying areas
      along the coast. Low spots along waterways and tidal creeks may
      also be impacted.
    - Some portions of near-shore roads and parking lots may become
      covered by surge water. Driving conditions may become hazardous
      in places where the surge covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion is possible, mainly in the vulnerable
      locations along the ocean front.
    - Minor damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers is
      possible. A few small craft may break away from moorings if not
      properly secured.
    - Navigation may be difficult near inlets and waterways, as
      navigational aids may be off station or missing.

Elsewhere across southeast North Carolina and northeast South
Carolina, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
WATCH/WARNING PHASE - If you are exceptionally vulnerable to wind or
water hazards from tropical systems, consider voluntary evacuation,
especially if being officially recommended. Relocate to a predetermined
shelter or safe destination.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track as there are inherent forecast uncertainties
which must be taken into account.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low lying or poor
drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Wilmington NC around 12 PM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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