[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 100835
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

Nadine continues to gradually strengthen.  Microwave images indicate
that the storm is beginning to develop an inner core with a
concentrated area of deep convection noted in infrared satellite
imagery.  The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt, in agreement
with 3.0/45 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.  Nadine has
about another day to strengthen while it remains in favorable
atmospheric conditions of low wind shear and high moisture, and over
warm waters.  The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA and IVCN
guidance and brings Nadine to 55 kt during that time period.
Thereafter, the global models all show a sharp increase in
southwesterly shear and that should end the opportunity for
strengthening and cause weakening.  The combination of strong shear,
drier air, and slightly cooler SSTs should cause the cyclone to open
into a trough in 3 to 4 days, or perhaps even sooner.

The compact storm is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt, and the
center is a little to the right of the previous forecast track.  A
continued northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during the
next couple of days while Nadine moves toward a trough over the
east-central Atlantic, the same trough that Leslie is embedded in.
After that time, the weak and shallow system should turn to the left
until dissipation.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a
little to the right of the previous one due to the more northward
initial motion and position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 12.1N  31.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 12.8N  31.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 13.9N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 15.1N  33.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 16.0N  34.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 17.3N  38.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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