[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MICHAEL is now a Category FOUR hurricane. The center of Hurricane
Michael at 10/0600 UTC is near 27.7N 86.6W, or about 290 km/157
nm SSW of Panama City in Florida, or about 275 km/148 nm SW of
Apalachicola in Florida. MICHAEL is moving N, or 355 degrees, 10
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 115 knots with gusts to 140
knots. Numerous strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the center
of MICHAEL in the N semicircle, within 90 nm of the center in the
SW quadrant, and within 60 nm of the center elsewhere in the S
semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from NW Cuba northward to the Florida Panhandle and the
Florida Big Bend from 87W eastward. Life- threatening storm surge
is likely along sections of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle,
the Florida Big Bend, and the Nature Coast, where a storm surge
warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is expected between
Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet of inundation is
possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of the center of
Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning area should
finish preparations to protect life and property today. Everyone
in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast should
prepare for life- threatening major hurricane winds associated
with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds also will extend
well inland across sections of the Florida Panhandle, southern
Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland. It is
possible that heavy rainfall from Michael may produce life-
threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and the Big
Bend region into sections of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast
Virginia. It is likely that tropical storm conditions will affect
parts of the southeast U.S.A. coast from northeastern Florida
through North Carolina, and tropical storm watches and warnings
are in effect for these areas. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for MICHAEL
are available via the WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCPAT4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for MICHAEL are
available via the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header
MIATCMAT4.

LESLIE has been upgraded to a hurricane. The center of Hurricane
Leslie at 10/0300 UTC is near 29.5N 42.6W. LESLIE is moving SSE,
or 160 degrees, 08 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 981 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with
gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are within 90 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere
around LESLIE from 25N to 34N between 38W and 47W. The PUBLIC
ADVISORIES for LESLIE are available via the WMO header WTNT33
KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES
for LESLIE are available via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via
the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

The center of Tropical Storm Nadine at 10/0300 UTC is near 11.6N
31.0W. NADINE is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 07 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 150 nm of the
center in the E semicircle. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for NADINE are
available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header
MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for NADINE are available via
the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 20N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 09N to 16N between 41W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W from 20N southward.
The wave is moving through upper level cyclonic wind flow that
covers the area that is between 70W and 80W. No significant deep
precipitation accompanies only the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W to 08N21W. The ITCZ is along 11N51W 10N61W. The
monsoon trough is being broken up by T.S. NADINE. Disorganized
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
within 90 nm on either side of the line that runs from 04N10W to
10N14W, within 120 nm on either side of the line that runs from
the Equator along 18W to 06N24W to 10N28W, and elsewhere from 05N
to 14N between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Michael near 27.1N 86.5W 947 mb at 11 PM EDT moving N
at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt.
Michael is expected to intensify further, make landfall along the
coast of the central panhandle of Florida late Wednesday
afternoon, then move inland on Wednesday night. The atmospheric
conditions will improve gradually from Thursday through Friday, as
Michael accelerates to the NE. A cold front will spill into the
NW Gulf of Mexico, behind the exiting Michael on Wednesday night
and Thursday, and reach from the Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf
of Mexico on Saturday evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 15N in the
Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Bahamas, between 70W and 80W.
Scattered strong rainshowers are from 13N to 21N between 67W and
71W, and in the Peninsula de la Guajira of northern Colombia and
extreme NW sections of Venezuela. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere between 66W and 76W.

Upper level NE wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea from
70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 13N southward
between 64W and 69W along the coast of Venezuela.

The atmospheric conditions across the NW Caribbean Sea will
improve gradually overnight as Hurricane Michael moves away from
the area. Expect moderate trade winds to prevail across the
Tropical Atlc Ocean and the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday,
before another broad low pressure center develops across the W
central Caribbean Sea from Friday through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Windward
Passage, just off the coast of SE Cuba. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow is present in the Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough
extends northwestward to the NW Bahamas. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere within 250 nm on either side of the upper level trough.

A surface trough is to the south of Hurricane Leslie, along
27N46W 23N49W. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, in broken low
level clouds, from 22N northward between 47W and 70W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N11W to Morocco near
23N15W. A surface trough extends from a 1005 mb low pressure
center that is near 33N13W, across the Canary Islands, to 23N22W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 29N
northward from 14W eastward to land.

Hurricane Michael, that is moving through the eastern parts of the
Gulf of Mexico, will move inland and weaken in the Florida Panhandle
on Wednesday afternoon, then veer NE and accelerate in a direction
that is parallel to the SE U.S.A. coast on Thursday and Friday. A
surface trough will move inland across NE Florida tonight. Fresh
to strong SE winds and high seas will accompany the trough.

http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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