[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 092142
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-100545-

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 13
National Weather Service Mobile AL  AL142018
442 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

**MICHAEL STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Hurricane Watch has been cancelled for Covington
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Butler, Conecuh, Crenshaw, and Escambia
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been cancelled for Baldwin Inland

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baldwin Central,
      Baldwin Coastal, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw,
      Escambia, Mobile Central, and Mobile Coastal
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Escambia Inland, Okaloosa
      Inland, and Santa Rosa Inland
    - A Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect for
      Escambia Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Coastal

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 340 miles south-southeast of Mobile AL or about 310 miles
      south of Pensacola FL
    - 26.0N 86.4W
    - Storm Intensity 120 mph
    - Movement North or 350 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 4:00 PM CDT, Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 26.0 North,
longitude 86.4 West with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.  Michael has
now strengthened to a category 3 storm, a major hurricane.  Michael was
moving northward at 12 mph and will continue northward through tonight
then change to a northeastward motion on Wednesday and make landfall
over the Florida panhandle or Florida Big Bend area then continue well
inland.  Wind impacts associated with Michael can be expected to begin
late tonight into early Wednesday morning and continue through Wednesday.
Storm surge inundation up to 2 and 4 feet expected from the Alabama and
Florida state line eastward to the Okaloosa, Walton county line. Along
the Alabama coast, coastal flooding with inundation between 1 and 2 feet
is expected.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Covington county
Alabama and Okaloosa county Florida.  Please continue to monitor the
latest forecast and prepare now for possible strong winds, storm surge
flooding, and heavy rainfall.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across portions of south central Alabama and the western
Florida panhandle. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Elsewhere, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts mainly across southwestern Alabama.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the western Florida panhandle. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal Alabama.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi,
little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts mainly across Covington county Alabama and Okaloosa
county Florida where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect. Potential
impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi,
little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
mainly across Okaloosa county Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi,
little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 11 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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