[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

Tue Oct 9 15:55:18 CDT 2018

WTNT34 KNHC 092054
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 86.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Fernandina Beach
Florida to South Santee River South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from South Santee River South
Carolina to Duck North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 86.4 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion
is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight.
The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from
the United States on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Michael is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at
landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as
Michael moves through the southeastern United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of
63 mph (101 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday.  Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the southeast U.S. coast by Wednesday, and possible in the watch
area by late Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...An additional 1 to 2 inches.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES:  The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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