[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 092041
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

Leslie's appearance on visible imagery has improved through the
afternoon, and multiple microwave overpasses show the development of
a small mid-level eye.  The intensity has been increased to 60 kt
based on an average of the most recent Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB.  Leslie is moving over warmer waters and the wind
shear is expected to be low, so additional strengthening is
anticipated and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane overnight.
Given the relatively favorable environment and the recent
organization of Leslie's inner-core, it is possible that Leslie
could intensify a little faster than currently indicated by the NHC
forecast. Beyond day 2, there is particularly low confidence in the
intensity forecast since the track of Leslie is highly uncertain,
and the NHC forecast essentially follows the intensity consensus. It
is likely that the farther south and west Leslie remains, the
stronger it will be.

Unfortunately the track forecast has not become any clearer.
Recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts still indicate that a range
of possibilities exist, from Leslie becoming extratropical and
heading toward the extreme northeast Atlantic, to Leslie turning
back west in a few days and persisting as a tropical cyclone.  No
large changes were made to the track forecast at this time, since I
see no reason to commit to a new solution at this time.  The NHC
forecast is close to HCCA at all forecast hours, but confidence is
low to say the least.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 30.3N  43.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 29.0N  42.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 28.0N  42.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 28.1N  41.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 29.2N  38.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 32.0N  29.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 33.0N  22.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 31.0N  20.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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