[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
201 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Michael is centered near 25.4N 86.4W at 09/1800 UTC or
bout 290 nm S of Panama City or about 270 nm SSW of Apalachicola
moving N, or 350 degrees 10 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 965mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with
gusts to 115 kt. Michael continues to become better organized as
presently as an eye feature has become visible in latest
satellite imagery. The imagery shows numerous strong convection
within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered strong
convection is elsewhere within 120 nm in the northern semicircle,
90 nm in the SW quadrant and within 30 nm in the SE quadrant.
Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane within the next 12
hours. Life- threatening storm surge is likely along parts of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, in the Florida Big Bend, and
Nature Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect for these
areas. Residents in these areas should follow all advice given by
their local officials. A hurricane warning is in effect for parts
of the Florida Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should
prepare for life- threatening winds associated with the core of
Michael. On the current NHC forecast track, the center of Michael
will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The
center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the Florida
Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wed, and then move
northeastward across the southeastern United States Wed night and
Thu, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United
States by Fri. Damaging winds will extend inland across parts of
the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael approaches those area and moves inland. It is possible
that heavy rainfall from Michael may produce life- threatening
flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
sections of Georgia and South Carolina. Michael is expected to
produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding in parts of western Cuba
through today. The Public Advisories for Michael are being
transmitted via the WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCPAT4. The Forecast/Advisories for Michael are under
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 31.3N 43.5W at 09/1500 UTC
or about 910 nm WSW of the Azores moving SSE, or 150 degrees at
11 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speed is 55 knots with gusts to 65 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated convection is within 180 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant, 120 nm SE and NW quadrants, and 60 nm
SW quadrant. Leslie is forecast to acquire a slower motion toward
the south-southeast over the next day or so, with a turn toward
the east-northeast or northeast forecast by Wed. Leslie is
forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Wednesday. The Public
Advisories for Leslie are under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and AWIPS
header MIATCPAT3. The Forecast/Advisories for Leslie are under WMO
header WTNT23 KNHC, and AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

Tropical Depression Fifteen has strengthened to Tropical Storm
Nadine as of 1500 UTC today in the eastern tropical Atlantic. At
1500 UTC it was located near 10.5N 30.0W moving WNW or 285
degrees at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007
mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection within 360 nm of the center in the NE quadrant,
270 nm southeast quadrant, 420 nm southwest quadrant and 330 nm
northwest quadrant. Nadine is forecast to turn to the NW tonight
and that general motion should continue Wed through Fri. Continued
strengthening is expected through Wed, with a weakening trend
beginning by early Thursday. Nadine is then forecast to weaken to
a tropical depression on Friday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W from 04N
to 19N, moving westward near 15 kt. Isolated showers are noted
from 08-17N between 42W-50W. The wave corresponds nicely with a
700 mb trough, as depicted by model analyses. GOES-16 Total
Precipitable Water imagery depicts a broad moisture maximum
associated with the tropical wave.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has axis is along 74W from
the coast of Colombia to 20N, moving westward around 15 kt. Model
analyses depict a 700 mb trough associated with the wave. GOES-16
Total Precipitable Water imagery shows a moisture maximum with
the tropical wave. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow is over and
just north of Hispaniola. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen south of 13N to the coast of Panama and
Colombia between the wave axis and 80W. Another area of scattered
moderate convection is noted from 16N to the coast of the
Dominican Republic between 69W-72W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also occurring over the Dominican Republic, with
isolated showers over Haiti. This convection is also being
enhanced by an area of upper-level diffluence just northeast of
Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal regions west
Africa near the Senegal/Mauritania border near 16N16W to 12N26W.
It resumes to the west of Tropical Storm Nadine at a position of
08N36W to 08N40W. The ITCZ axis begins at 10N49W and continues to
10N57W. In addition to convection associated with Tropical
Storm Nadine, scattered moderate convection is seen within 150 nm
north of the ITCZ west of 56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Michael is the main feature in the basin. See the Special
Features above for details on Michael. Long period swell from
Michael will increase over the western Gulf of Mexico into tonight
and early Wed. Conditions will gradually improve Thu through Fri
as Michael accelerates off to the NE. A cold front will spill into
the NW Gulf behind the exiting Michael late Wed through Thu and
reach from the Florida Panhandle to SW Gulf Sat evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

In the wake of Hurricane Michael, fresh south to southwest winds
along with seas of 6 to 9 ft in a north swell will linger in the
northwest Caribbean. Seas will gradually subside through Wed.
The outermost rainbands from Michael are still bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms to portions of western Cuba with
potential for flash flooding, as mentioned in the Special Features
section above.

Upper-level cyclonic wind flow is over the southeastern Caribbean
while upper-level anticyclonic flow covers portions of the west-
central Caribbean. Expect moderate trades across the east half
of the Caribbean through Fri, before another broad low pressure
center develops across the W central Caribbean Fri through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper-level cyclonic flow is over the southeast Bahamas and north
coast of Hispaniola while upper-level anticyclonic flow is
located from 26N-31N between 70W-76W. An area of upper-level
diffluence is noted from 21N-25N between 66W-71W. A surface trough
extends from 30N75W to 25N76W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 22N-26N between 68W-74W. Most of this activity is
occurring to the northeast and east of the southeast Bahamas. A
separate area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is noted east
of northern Florida from 28N-31W between 73W-81W. The surface
trough is forecast to move west-northwest across the northwest
Bahamas today and tonight, then weaken as it approaches S Florida
Wed.

A surface trough is located south of Leslie from 29N44W to 24N50W.
Little to no shower activity is noted with the trough. An upper-
level trough axis passes through 29N28W to 23N40W to 20N51W and
19N59W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 17N-
20N between 55W-61W. A 1008 mb low is near 32N16W. A surface
trough extends from the low near 31N18W to 26N24W. Isolated
showers are noted north of 27N east of 15W. A 1017 mb surface high
is located near 24N36W, leading to quiet weather from 20N-28N
between 29W-38W.

Hurricane Michael, currently over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
will make landfall in the Florida Panhandle and then turn
northeastward, eventually reaching the Atlantic Ocean as a
tropical storm strength system. On Thursday morning, the
southeastern edge of Michael's tropical storm force winds could
clip the forecast area north of 30N and west of 79W as it moves
northeastward over the western Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen/Aguirre
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