[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 091443
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Michael has continued to become better organized this morning.  The
hurricane has become more symmetric with the eye becoming more
apparent in infrared and visible satellite imagery.  Data from both
NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the minimum pressure has dropped to around 965 mb, and a blend
of the flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of
95 kt for this advisory.  With two aircraft in the storm, they have
been able to sample each of the four quadrants a couple of times
this morning, providing better confidence in the analyzed wind
field.  The planes actually passed through the eye around the same
time just before 1200 UTC, and reported that they could see one
another.

The outflow pattern has become better established over the
hurricane, but there is still a little evidence of some westerly
shear.  The shear should continue to decrease, and further
strengthening is expected until landfall on Wednesday.  Michael is
expected to become a major hurricane later today, and remain a
dangerous major hurricane through landfall.  Significant weakening
should occur as the center moves inland over the southeastern United
States, but re-strengthening as an extratropical low is expected
when the system moves over the western Atlantic.

Michael is moving between north-northwest and north at about 10 kt.
The track forecast reasoning is the same as the past several
advisories, as Michael should move generally northward through early
Wednesday between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer
trough over the central United States.  As the trough moves eastward
it will cause Michael to turn northeastward on Wednesday.  The
hurricane should then continue northeastward and accelerate as it
becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance
is in very good agreement through the first 36-48 hours, with some
differences in forward speed thereafter.  The GFS and ECMWF have
trended slower after landfall, and the new NHC track has been
adjusted accordingly.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Water levels will
rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within
the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect
life and property today.

2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf
Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds
associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also
extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 25.0N  86.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 26.7N  86.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 28.8N  86.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 30.8N  85.1W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 72H  12/1200Z 37.5N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/1200Z 44.0N  56.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/1200Z 50.0N  38.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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