[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 091037
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-091845-

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 11
National Weather Service Mobile AL  AL142018
537 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

**Hurricane Michael is expected to bring impacts to the Florida Panhandle
and southern Alabama**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Baldwin Inland, Butler,
      Conecuh, Crenshaw, Escambia, Mobile Inland, and Monroe
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Covington, Mobile Central,
      and Mobile Coastal
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Escambia Inland, Okaloosa
      Inland, and Santa Rosa Inland
    - A Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect for
      Escambia Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Coastal

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 470 miles south-southeast of Mobile AL or about 450 miles
      south of Pensacola FL
    - 24.1N 85.9W
    - Storm Intensity 90 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 345 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 4:00 AM CDT, Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 24.1
North, longitude 85.9 West with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph.
Michael was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 mph. The
hurricane will continue to move north-northwestward for the next
24 hours and intensify to a major hurricane in the northern Gulf
of Mexico before recurving to the northeast prior to landfall.
Michael is expected to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle on
Wednesday and move across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday. Wind impacts associated with Michael can be
expected, especially from late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Storm
surge inundation between 2 and 4 feet will be possible from the
Alabama and Florida state line eastward to the Okaloosa, Walton
county line. To the west, from Navarre Beach to the Alabama and
Florida state line, coastal flooding with inundation between 1
and 2 feet will be possible. Periods of heavy rainfall could lead
to localized flooding primarily over Covington, Crenshaw and
Okaloosa counties Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

Please continue to monitor the latest forecast and prepare now for
possible strong winds, storm surge flooding, and heavy rainfall.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across southeastern Okaloosa county. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible limited
to extensive impacts across the remainder of the western Florida Panhandle
and portions of southern and southwestern Alabama.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the western Florida panhandle. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across southwest Alabama.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Alabama counties of Crenshaw and Covington as well as
Okaloosa County, Florida.
Potential impacts include:
    - Periods of intense rainfall may produce localized flooding.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 11 AM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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