[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 090551
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
100 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...MICHAEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 85.7W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located by and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 23.6 North, longitude 85.7 West.  Michael is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will continue to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
this morning, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later
today and tonight.  The center of Michael is expected to move inland
over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday,
and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Reports from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day
or so, and Michael is expected to become a major hurricane by
Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 973 mb (28.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the far
western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio for the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by
tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical
storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, Georgia and South
Carolina... 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Yucatan Peninsula...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch.

SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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