[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 090240
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018

Satellite and microwave data show that Leslie continues to have a
small central dense overcast, with the latest microwave images
suggesting that Leslie is forming a mid-level eye.  Although deep
convection has recently decreased somewhat, all of the 00Z intensity
estimates were 55 kt or higher, so the wind speed is set to that
value.

There is no significant change in initial motion- still
southeastward at about 12 kt.  Leslie should slow down and turn
toward the south-southeast during the next day or two as the cyclone
becomes steered by a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.
A new trough moves into the eastern Atlantic after that time, which
should eject Leslie generally east-northeastward to the south of the
Azores.  Models continue to be in poor agreement on whether that
trough will accelerate Leslie quickly to the northeast at long range
or drop the cyclone to the southwest of Portugal.  The recent
GFS-based guidance has generally shifted southward and is slower,
more in line with the 12Z UK/ECMWF models.  The new NHC forecast
follows that trend, but is still on the northern side of the
consensus due to continuity concerns, and additional southward
adjustments could be required on later advisories.

Leslie is forecast to move across marginally warm waters within a
moderate shear but a more moist environment over the next few days.
These conditions are likely to support slow strengthening, and
model guidance is in general agreement on this scenario.  Only
minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast, and the NHC
forecast remains between the intensity consensus and corrected-
consensus aids.  By day 5, increasing shear and cold waters
should weaken Leslie, and it will probably lose convection to
transition into a post-tropical cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 32.9N  44.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 31.5N  43.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 29.6N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 28.1N  42.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 27.9N  41.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 30.0N  35.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 33.5N  24.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 35.5N  16.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake
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