[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082103 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018

Corrected Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Michael is centered near 20.6N 85.5W at 08/0900
UTC, or about 105 nm ENE of Cozumel, Mexico, or 60 nm S of the
western tip of Cuba moving N or 360 degrees at 06 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 70 kt. Michael has
become better organized during the morning. Upper-level outflow
is increasing over the western semicircle of the cyclone. Latest
satellite imagery shows scattered to numerous strong convection
within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered strong
convection is within 210 nm of the center in the SE quadrant.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of
a line from 21N80W to 23N84W, and within 60 nm of 23N85W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of a line from
16N85W to 18N84W. Michael is forecast to increase its northward
motion through Tue night, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wed and Thu. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will
move northward across the Yucatan Channel later today, and then
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening through Wed.
Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or
Florida Big Bend area on Wed, and then move northeastward across
the southeastern United States Wed night and Thu. Michael is
expected to produce very heavy rainfall over western Cuba and
the Florida panhandle. The Public Advisories are under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The
Forecast/Advisories are under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and AWIPS
header MIATCMAT4.

Tropical Storm Leslie is north of the area near 35.2N 47.9W at
08/0900 or about 860 nm ENE of Bermuda, or 1640 nm W of the
Azores moving ESE, or 110 degrees at 11 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 989 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Latest satellite imagery
shows that deep convection is mainly occurring in banding
features near and the north of its center. This convection
consists of the scattered moderate isolated strong type within
180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant.
Leslie is forecast to maintain an east to southeast to southeast
motion during the next few days across the open central and
eastern Atlantic. The Public Advisories are under WMO header
WTNT33 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The
Forecast/Advisories are under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and under
AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave along
25W from 03N to 16N, is located several hundred miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection has become more concentrated since last night from
07N to 11N between 24W and 28W. Similar convection is within 60
nm of a line from 11N30W to 12N27W, and within 30 nm of 25N30W.
This system has a medium potential to form into a tropical
depression during next few days while it moves west-
northwestward. By late this week, however, upper-level winds are
expected to become unfavorable for development. See latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 04N to
17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within 240 nm east of the wave from 10N to
15N. Similar convection is ahead of the wave within 60 nm of
13N45W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W south of 19N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
within 60 nm either side of the wave from 13N to 15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...Corrected

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal regions of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N24W to 09N28W to 08N36W. The
ITCZ axis extends from 09N42W to 08N50W to 08N59W. Outside from
convection associated with the Special Features tropical wave
along 25W, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
within 60 nm south of the monsoon trough between 30W-35W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the far eastern Atlantic
from 04N to 15N between 15W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Michael is over the far northwestern Caribbean
Sea, moving northward at 06 kt. Michael is forecast to continue to
increase its northward motion through Tue night, followed by a
northeastward motion on Wed and Thu. On the forecast track, the
center of Michael will move northward across the Yucatan Channel
later today, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this
evening through Wed. Expect for scattered to numerous strong
convection, with strong strong gusty winds outside the radii of
tropical storm force winds, to increase along and near the track
of Michael. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the
remainder of the warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula
later today.

An upper-level trough is squeezed between two ridges, passing
through the coastal border area of Mississippi and Alabama to the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. An upper-level ridge is on either
side of the trough. The ridge that is to the east of the trough is
associated with the upper level anticyclonic outflow that present
to the north of Michael.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Michael is centered near 20.9N 85.1W 983 mb at 8
AM EDT, moving northward at at 6 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 70 knots. See Special Features above for
more details on Tropical Storm Michael.

An upper-level NE-to-SW oriented ridge extends from the Windward
Passage to Nicaragua. A second east-to-west oriented ridge is
along 14N/15N between 63W and 74W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N72W.
Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong
rainshowers are within 600 nm of the upper level cyclonic
circulation center in the E semicircle.

A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure center that
is near 32N22W to 30N22W to 28N35W to 30N31W. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are within 30 nm of a line from 32N15W to
29N22W to 28N25W.

A surface ridge will prevail across the area during the entire
period. A surface trough will develop to the north of Hispaniola
tonight, and it will drift west-northwest across the Bahamas
through Monday night. The surface pressure gradient between this
trough and the ridge will support fresh to strong winds to the
northeast of the northern Bahamas. Tropical storm-force wind
speeds from Tropical Storm Michael may clip the waters offshore
N Florida mid- week as the storm moves NE to the north of the
area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Aguirre
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