[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Michael is centered near 20.6N 85.5W at 08/0900
UTC, or about 105 nm ENE of Cozumel, Mexico, or 60 nm S of the
western tip of Cuba moving N of 360 degrees at 6 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 70 knots. Michael has
become better organized during the morning. Upper-level outflow is
increasing over the western semicircle of the cyclone. Latest
satellite imagery shows scattered to numerous strong convection
within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered strong
convection is within 210 nm of the center in the SE quadrant.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of a
line from 21N80W to 23N84W, and within 60 nm of 23N85W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 30 nm of a line from 16N85W to
18N84W. Michael is forecast to increase its northward motion
through Tue night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wed and
Thu. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move
northward across the Yucatan Channel later today, and then across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening through Wed. Michael is
expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big
Bend area on Wed, and then move northeastward across the
southeastern United States Wed night and Thu. Michael is expected
to produce very heavy rainfall over western Cuba and the Florida
panhandle. The Public Advisories are under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC,
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The Forecast/Advisories are
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Tropical Storm Leslie is north of the area centered near 35.2N
47.9W at 08/0900 or about 860 nm ENE of Bermuda, or 1640 nm W of
the Azores moving ESE, or 110 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 989 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Latest satellite imagery
shows that deep convection is mainly occurring in banding
features near and the north of its center. This convection
consists of the scattered moderate isolated strong type within 180
nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant.
Leslie is forecast to maintain and east to southeast to southeast
motion during the next few days across the open central and
eastern Atlantic. The Public Advisories are under WMO header
WTNT33 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The
Forecast/Advisories are under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and under
AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave along 25W
south of 16N, is located several hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection has
become more concentrated since last night from 07N to 11N between
24W and 28W. Similar convection is within 60 nm of a line from
11N30W to 12N27W, and within 30 nm of 25N30W. This system has a
medium potential to form into a tropical depression during next
few days while it moves west-northwestward. By late this week,
however, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for
development. See latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 04N to 17N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 16N between 34W
and 43W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 11N to 14N between 60W and 63W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the area that runs from 10N to 20N
between 60W and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal regions of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W, to 10N22W, to 07N30W, and 07N35W. The
ITCZ extends from 13N43W 11N54W 11N60W. Scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers cover the area that runs from 09N to 15N
between Africa and 20W. It is most probable that this
precipitation is accompanying the next tropical wave. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 08N to 11N between
48W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Michael is over the far northwestern Caribbean
Sea, moving northward at 06 kt. Michael is forecast to continue to
increase its northward motion through Tue night, followed by a
northeastward motion on Wed and Thu. On the forecast track, the
center of Michael will move northward across the Yucatan Channel
later today, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this
evening through Wed. Expect for scattered to numerous strong
convection, with strong strong gusty winds outside the radii of
tropical storm force winds, to increase along and near the track
of Michael. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the
remainder of the warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula
later today.

An upper-level trough is squeezed between two ridges, passing
through the coastal border area of Mississippi and Alabama to the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. An upper-level ridge is on either
side of the trough. The ridge that is to the east of the trough is
associated with the upper level anticyclonic outflow that present
to the north of Michael.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Michael is centered near 20.9N 85.1W 983 mb at 8
AM EDT, moving northward at at 6 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 70 knots. See Special Features above for
more details on Tropical Storm Michael.

An upper level NE-to-SW oriented ridge extends from the Windward
Passage to Nicaragua. A second east-to-west oriented ridge is
along 14N/15N between 63W and 74W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N72W.
Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong
rainshowers are within 600 nm of the upper level cyclonic
circulation center in the E semicircle.

A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure center that
is near 32N23W, to 30N22W 27N22W, and 23N23W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers cover the area that runs from 27N northward between
13W and 30W.

A surface ridge will prevail across the area during the entire
period. A surface trough will develop to the north of Hispaniola
tonight, and it will drift west-northwest across the Bahamas
through Monday night. The surface pressure gradient between this
trough and the ridge will support fresh to strong winds to the
northeast of the northern Bahamas. Tropical storm-force wind
speeds from Tropical Storm Michael may clip the waters offshore N
Florida mid- week as the storm moves NE to the north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
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