[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 080856
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
BEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 85.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
province of Pinar del Rio.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Navarre Florida to Anna
Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Alabama-Florida border
eastward to the Suwanee River Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwanee River to
Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay.  A Tropical Storm
Watch has also been issued from the Alabama-Florida border to the
Mississippi-Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 20.6 North, longitude 85.5 West.  Michael is moving toward
the north near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A northward motion at a slightly
faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by
a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Michael will move northward across the Yucatan
Channel later today, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
this evening through Wednesday.  Michael is expected to move inland
over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday,
and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Michael is
expected to become a hurricane later today.  Michael is forecast to
be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Crystal River...7-11 ft
Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...4-7 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected across the far western part
of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio later today.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas
in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the U.S. Gulf coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Wednesday night...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into southern Georgia...4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall
may lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Keys...2 to 4 inches.

Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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