[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Leslie at 06/2100 UTC is near 37.4N
54.5W. Leslie is moving E, or 100 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the center in
the E semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are elsewhere within 360 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LESLIE are transmiteed via
the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are transmitted via the WMO
header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

The center of POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN 06/2100 UTC is
near 18.0N 86.6W. The 1006 mb low pressure center is moving NW,
or 325 degrees, 05 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with
gusts to 35 knots. Broad large-scale cyclonic wind flow covers
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 16N northward from 80W
westward. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers cover the area
that is from 15N in Honduras to 18N in the Yucatan Peninsula
between 86W in Honduras and 90W in the Yucatan Peninsula.
Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong rainshowers cover
the area that is from 17N to Cuba between 81W and 86W, in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES are being
transmitted via the WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCPAT4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES are being transmitted
via the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header
MIATCMAT4.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa along 18W from 03N-
17N, moving west at 10 kt. GOES-16 TPW imagery shows a moisture
maximum surrounding the wave. The wave also has an associated 700
mb trough. Surface observations also depict the wave axis. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N between 12W-24W.

A tropical wave is along 40W from 03N-16N, moving west at 15 kt.
GOES-16 TPW imagery shows a moisture maximum surrounding the wave.
The wave also has an associated 700 mb trough. Widely scattered
moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 08N-14N between
32W-40W.

A tropical wave is along 57W from 06N-18N moving west at 10-15
kt. The wave has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate
convection is E of the wave axis from 08N-12N between 46W-57W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N13W
to 06N20W to 08N30W to 08N3W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to
09N56W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ between
41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over N Georgia near 34N83W. Surface
ridging is producing 10-15 kt E to SE winds over the Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered showers are noted over the NW Gulf, and over
the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is
over W Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula, moving N.

In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the
central Gulf near 28N91W.

Expect surface ridging to prevail over the forecast area through
the weekend, however, convection will advect N from the NW
Caribbean to the SE Gulf for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large cyclonic gyre is over the NW Caribbean. See above.

Widely scattered moderate convection is over the northern
Caribbean from 18N-22 between 60W-80W. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate convection is over the central Caribbean from 15N-18N
between 72W-75W.

Expect active convection to persist across the central and
western Caribbean during the slow drift of the cyclonic gyre into
the southern Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic. See
above. T.S. Leslie is also described in Special Features section.

A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 31N23W to 22N33W.
Scattered showers are within 180 nm east of the trough axis
mainly north of 26N. Another surface trough is N of the Canary
Islands from 31N10W to 29N16W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of this trough.

In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered E of the
Bahamas near 26N69W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is
enhancing the convection over the Leeward Islands. A large upper
level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N27W. Upper
level diffluence E of this center is enhancing the showers over
the Canary Islands.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net