[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 052040
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 PM AST Fri Oct 05 2018

Leslie is currently maintaining a small central convective feature
and an outer convective band in the southeastern semicircle.  The
various satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little, so
the initial intensity is nudged downward to 50 kt.  This is still a
little above the estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite
consensus.  While no data was available from the inner core,
scatterometer overpasses this morning suggests that Leslie has
changed little in size since last night.

Leslie has now slowed its forward motion and is starting to turn
more eastward, with an initial motion of 030/3.  A turn to the east
is expected during the next 24 h, followed by a turn toward the
east-southeast by 36 h as Leslie encounters the southern edge of the
mid-latitude westerlies.  A general motion toward the east-southeast
or southeast should then continue for the remainder of the forecast
period.  The latest guidance again shifted southward, and the new
forecast track, which is in best agreement with the TVCN consensus
model, is shifted to the south of the previous track

The forecast track again takes Leslie over cooler waters around day
2, into slightly stronger shear around day 3, and over warmer
water with decreasing shear around days 4-5.  However, the structure
of Leslie is not currently conducive for rapid changes in intensity
either up or down.  Thus, the intensity forecast, which has only
minor tweaks from the previous forecast, follows the trend of the
previous forecast and the guidance in showing gradual weakening near
48 h, followed by slight intensification near 96-120 h.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the eastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic
Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as
these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 36.2N  58.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 36.7N  57.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 36.7N  55.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 36.4N  53.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 35.8N  51.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 34.0N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 31.5N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 30.0N  42.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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