[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Leslie centered near 35.9N 58.3W at 05/0900 UTC
or 390 nm NE of Bermuda moving NNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. A slower northward motion is expected to
occur today, but Leslie will make a sharp turn toward the east and
east-southeast over the weekend. Leslie remains a large tropical
storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to
290 miles (465 km) from the center. Scattered moderate convection
is N of the center from 35N-38N between 55W-59W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is S of the center from
32N-34N between 58W-64W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical is along 32W from 04N-17N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water imagery
shows a moisture maximum surrounding the wave. The wave also has
an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 11N-14N between 30W-34W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is also E of the wave axis from 05N-
12N between 24W-30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 06N-17N
moving westward at 10 kt. The wave has an associated 700 mb
trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between
46W-55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N16W
to 10N22W to 09N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 09N49W, then
continues west of a tropical wave from 09N51W to the coast of
northeast Venezuela near 09N60W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
convection is from 12N-16N between 40W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers are moving westward over the eastern Gulf from
24N-28N between 85W-89W due to a surface trough that extends from
29N86W to 24N86W. The remainder of the basin is under the
influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered
over Alabama near 33N85W.

Expect surface ridging to prevail over the forecast area through
the weekend. A surface trough will develop each evening over the
Yucatan Peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf
overnight, where it will dissipate each morning. Moderate to fresh
winds will accompany the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large cyclonic gyre is over the western Caribbean centered over
NE Honduras near 16N84W. A surface trough extends from 21N83W to
the center to 12N84W. Scattered moderate to numerous strong
convection is from 13N-18N between 79W-87W. Some slow development
of this system is possible this weekend or early next week as the
system drifts northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean and
the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Scattered moderate convection is over the Leeward Islands from
18N-21N between 60W-70W.

Large NNE swell generated from Leslie will continue to pass
through the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean through the end
of the week before subsiding.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic between the
west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. See above for
details. Leslie is also described in the Special Features section
above.

A 1019 high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N78W producing
fair weather. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 30N27W
to 25N41W. Isolated moderate convection is from 25N-27N between
28W-32W.

In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the
central Atlantic near 29N62W. Upper level diffluence E of the
center is producing a line of convection from 32N47W to 23N58W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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