[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 AM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Leslie centered near 29.9N 56.9W at 03/2100 UTC or 430
nm ESE of Bermuda moving N at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with
gusts to 85 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is
noted within 120 nm of the center. Little motion is expected for
the next several hours. A northward motion is forecast to begin
this evening, and this motion with an increase in forward speed
should continue through Friday night. A turn to the east is
expected this weekend. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, but a slow weakening trend is expected
to begin on Friday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 26W
from 03N-14N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm on either side of the wave's axis
mainly south of 10N. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows deep
moisture surrounding the wave. The wave has an associated 700 mb
trough, as shown by model analyses.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W from 05N-14N moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are occurring along
and in the vicinity of the wave's axis between 40-48W. The wave
has an associated 700 mb trough, as shown by model analyses.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 64W from
08N-18N, moving westward at 10 kt. A TPW animation shows moderate
moisture in the wave's environment. The wave is not producing any
significant convection due to an area of mid-level ridging and
sinking air that prevails across the eastern Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of west Africa near
11N15W to 10N25W. The ITCZ extends from 06N27W to 07N43W, then
continues west of a tropical wave from 07N47W to 09N60W. Aside
from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section above,
scattered showers are observed within 150 nm south of the ITCZ
between 25W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough continues over the north-central Gulf waters
along 89W between 26N-29N with scattered showers. Enhanced
moisture associated with this trough is seen on GOES-16 TPW
imagery. Scattered showers are entering the Bay of Campeche from
the Yucatan Peninsula. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin with little to no shower activity.

Expect ridging to prevail over the forecast area during the next
few days. A surface trough will develop each evening over the
Yucatan Peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf
overnight, where it will dissipate each morning. Moderate to fresh
winds will accompany the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for details. A broad surface trough
is over the western Caribbean, analyzed from 20N78W to a 1007 mb
low near 17N81W to 13N82W. Satellite imagery shows scattered
moderate convection prevailing across the western Caribbean mainly
west of 75W. Some slow development of this system is possible
this weekend while the low drifts across the northwestern
Caribbean. A mid to upper level trough extending over the Bahamas
and Greater Antilles will help advect moisture northward as the
week progresses. As a result, heavy rainfall is likely to spread
over sections of Hispaniola and Jamaica later this week and into
the weekend.

Large NNE swells generated from Leslie will continue to move
through the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean during the next
few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves over the tropical Atlantic between the west
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles are described in the
Tropical Waves section above. Hurricane Leslie is described in
the Special Features section above.

An area of upper-level diffluence just east of the central Bahamas
is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 25N-27N
between 73W-76W. This activity could continue in this area
through the night.

An E-W surface trough is analyzed to the east of Hurricane Leslie
from 29N45W to 30N33W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
along and south of this trough mainly north of to 25N between
34W-41W. Surface ridging prevails over the eastern Atlantic,
leading to quiet weather from 19N-27N east of 40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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