[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 040233
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018

It is difficult to add more to the discussion about a cyclone that
has moved very little during the past few days and has not changed
significantly in structure either. Leslie's cloud pattern is
not very impressive with a large ragged-eye feature (if you can
call that an eye) surrounded by weaker convection than earlier
today. Although Dvorak numbers are lower tonight, we can still hold
the intensity at 70 kt in this advisory. Most likely, the convection
will reinvigorate tonight, but no important changes in intensity are
anticipated during the next 24 hours or so. A weakening trend is
expected thereafter as the cyclone reaches cooler waters.

Leslie has begun to move northward at about 7 kt, and most likely
the cyclone will continue on that track for the next two days. By
then, Leslie will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and this
flow will force the cyclone to make a sharp turn to the east. Track
models are in remarkably good agreement with the initial northward
turn and with eastward turn.  However, during the last portion of
the forecast models diverge, and the confidence in the track
forecast is not very high.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada on Friday.  Please consult products from your
local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 30.6N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 32.0N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 34.2N  57.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 36.0N  57.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 37.0N  57.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 36.5N  56.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 36.5N  53.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 35.5N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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