[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
157 PM EDT Mon Oct 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 33.2N 54.3W at 01/1500 UTC
or 535 nm E of Bermuda moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt
with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120
nm north and northeast of the center, with weaker convection
elsewhere within 180 nm of the center. A slow southwestward or
southward motion is forecast during the next few days. Gradual
strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Leslie is
forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. The Public Advisories
for Leslie are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via
the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The Forecast/Advisories for Leslie
are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS
header MIATCMAT3.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W from 02N-14N, moving
W around 20 kt. The southern portion of the wave has a 700 mb
trough associated with it. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 08N-10N between 41W-45W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W from 05N-17N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. The wave has a well defined 700 mb trough
associated with it. The GOES-16 TPW imagery also shows a moist
area around the wave axis. Isolated showers are seen from 15N-16N
between 53W-54W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 13N17W, to 10N25W to 08N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N43W to the
coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are within 90 nm north and 180 nm south of the
monsoon trough between 21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough oriented NNE-SSW is over E Texas. Upper
level diffluence E of this feature covers much of the central and
northeast Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is noted off the
coast of Texas from 26N-30N west of 93W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are also occurring from 27N-29N between 85W-87W. At
the surface, east winds of 10-15 kt cover most of the Gulf.
Expect ridging to prevail over the forecast area during the next
few days. A surface trough will develop each evening in the
Yucatan peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf of Mexico
overnight, where it will dissipate each morning. Moderate to
fresh winds will accompany the trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level troughing extends over much of Cuba and the northwest
Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are over the Yucatan Channel and
the Windward passage. Broad upper level ridging is over the
central and eastern Caribbean with westerly upper level flow,
leading to fair weather east of 70W.

A surface trough over the central Caribbean Sea has been nearly
stationary along 76W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
seen from 12N-16N between 72W-82W. The trough will remain nearly
stationary or perhaps move very slowly toward the western
Caribbean over the next several days. A large cyclonic gyre is
expected to develop over this area by Friday. A large NNE swell
generated from Leslie will continue to move through the Atlantic
passages into the Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A remnant cloud line from a front that dissipated during the last
24 hours is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms off the
east coast of north-central FL and north of the northwest
Bahamas. Broad surface cyclonic wind flow covers the central
Atlantic within a large distance surrounding Tropical Storm
Leslie. In between Leslie and a mid-level high near 17N33W,
numerous moderate convection is being generated from 25N-30N
between 41W-47W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring
elsewhere from 22N-28N between 47W and the coast of north-central
Florida, to the north and east of the Bahamas.

A tropical wave still over west Africa is producing an area of
scattered moderate convection offshore from 03N-08N between 12W-
17W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also
occurring over Sierra Leone and Guinea.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net