[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281752
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 PM EST Wed Nov 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING for the Atlantic Ocean...

A cold front passes through 32N64W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
28N70W, across the Bahamas near 24N76W, to Cuba near 22N80W, to
central Belize. The forecast made at 28/1200 UTC consists of W-to-
NW GALE- FORCE winds to the N of 28N to the W of the cold front.
Expect sea heights to range from 13 feet to 18 feet. Expect the
GALE- FORCE winds to diminish to less than GALE-FORCE just after
sunset today. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Sierra Leone. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 07N18W,
05N24W and 05N28W. The ITCZ also is along 03N32W 02N37W 02N40W.
One surface trough is along 05N30W 03N31W 02N30W. A second surface
trough is along 04N41W 02N42W, toward the Equator along 43W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
08N southward between 10W and 30W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the SW corner of Alabama, into the
west central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, and into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are from 25N
southward from 90W westward.

Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area.

Current surface high pressure in the north central Gulf of Mexico
will slide slowly ENE across the N Gulf of Mexico through
Thursday, in order to maintain moderate to fresh northerly winds
across the eastern half of the Gulf. Southerly return flow will
develop across the NW Gulf, and gradually spread across the
entire Gulf of Mexico by Friday, as the high pressure slides ENE
today. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast on
Saturday morning, and meander across the NW Gulf through Sunday,
before reinforcing high pressure forces the front SE on Sunday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes across the Bahamas near 24N76W, to Cuba near
22N80W, to central Belize. A surface trough is along 17N81W
16N86W, to southern Belize and the Gulf of Honduras. Broken low
level clouds and light rain/rainshowers are in the NW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, from 15N northward from SE Cuba/Jamaica
westward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery is to
the north and northeast of the line that runs from 16N87W to
14N78W to the coast of Colombia near 11N73W.

The monsoon trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, beyond 08N81W in
southern Panama, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers are to the south of 14N from 75W
westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 28/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.18 in St.
Thomas, and 0.08 in Trinidad.

The current cold front gradually will become stationary, from E
Cuba to central Belize through late tonight. The front will become
oriented E to W along 20N on Thursday evening. The weakening
remnants of the front then will move N across the NW Caribbean Sea
from Thursday night through late Friday. Fresh to locally strong
nocturnal trade winds along the N coast of Colombia will occur
from tonight through the remainder of the week. Long period N to
NW swell will dominate Atlantic Ocean through much of the
forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N64W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
28N70W, across the Bahamas near 24N76W, to Cuba near 22N80W, to
central Belize. A second cold front is about 130 nm to the WNW
of the first front, from 31N northward. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 90 nm on
either side of the line that runs through 28N63W beyond 32N58W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere within 60 nm to 90 nm
on either side of the line that runs from 28N63W to 25N69W, to
the Bahamas near 23N74W, to 21N77W along the coast of Cuba.
24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 28/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.91 in
Bermuda.

A dissipating cold front passes through 32N28W to 26N40W to
23N49W. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 90 nm on either
side of the line that runs from 24N42W to 27N34W beyond 32N29W.

A surface trough is along 56W/57W from 10N to 19N. Rainshowers
are possible from 12N to 19N between 54W and 60W.

The current cold front, that passes across the Bahamas to Cuba to
Belize/the Gulf of Honduras, will move SE and reach from 26N65W
to eastern Cuba by this evening, then from 23N65W to N Windward
Passage on Thursday evening. Strong to minimal gale force winds
are expected N of about 28N, on either side of the front through
this evening, before these conditions move to the NE of the area.
Surface high pressure that is to the west of the front will slide
ENE into the W Atlantic Ocean early on Friday as the front
becomes nearly stationary from 21N65W to the Windward Passage and
gradually dissipates through Saturday. Long period N to NW swell
will dominate most of the Atlantic Ocean waters through the
weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net