[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251142
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 AM EST Sun Nov 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING in the Western Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast late this afternoon.
The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend region to W Bay of
Campeche Mon morning, from the Florida Keys to E Bay of Campeche
Tue morning, then move SE of the area Tue evening or night. Strong
to near gale force northerly winds will spread S behind the cold
front this evening, increasing to minimal gale force S of 25N
west of 94W late tonight, and spread S across the far SW waters
near Veracruz Mon morning through evening. Seas will build to 10
to 15 ft in the SW Gulf Monday. Please refer to the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more information.

...GALE WARNING for Atlantic waters Southeast of Bermuda...

A 1007 mb surface low near 30N68W has a warm front extending east
to 29N64W to 28N61W, then stationary to 26N55W to 29N40W, then a
cold front from 29N40W to 32N31W. Numerous moderate/isolated
strong convection is north of a line extending from 32N66W to
29N60W to 27N55W to 31N49W. South of that line, scattered moderate
convection is north of 22N between 52W-61W. Winds to gale force
are expected by late this morning or early afternoon N of 26N
between 54W-62W along with high seas. Winds will gradually
diminish tonight as the low and warm front shift farther NE out of
the area. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 09N16W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to
05N20W to 01N40W to 01S47W. Isolated to scattered areas of
moderate convection are noted from 04N-09N between the W coast of
Africa and 38W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
also noted from 00N-09N between 05W-18W and from 12N-18N between
the west coast of Africa and 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1010 mb low is centered over northern Florida near 29N82W. A
cold front extends SW from the low to 27N85W, then continues as a
warm front from that point to 26.5N91W to 27.5N93.5W, dissipating
to 29N95W. Little to no significant shower activity is observed
at this time.

Expect a moderate to fresh southerly breeze this morning over the
western half of the Gulf of Mexico. The frontal boundary over the
Gulf will lift northward today. The next cold front will move off
the Texas coast late this afternoon then move SE of the area Tue
evening or night. See the section above for more information about
this front and the Gale Warning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from near 21N62W in the Atlantic to
18N64W to 13N66W over the eastern Caribbean. Isolated showers are
seen from 16N-18N between 65W-67W. In the far SW Caribbean,
isolated showers are south of 10N between 75W-78W due to the
monsoon trough, located well to the south of the area. Elsewhere,
the basin is free of significant convection due to strong
subsidence in the region.

Fresh to locally strong trades will prevail across the tropical
Atlantic waters E of the Windward Islands this morning then
become moderate to fresh throughout the rest of the period.
Locally strong nocturnal trades are forecast along the NW coast of
Colombia tonight and Mon night, then returning Wed night and Thu
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for
information on the Gale Warning in the western Atlantic.

A cold front enters the area near 32N76W, extends SW to a 1010 mb
low centered over N Florida near 29N82W, and continues into the
Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers are noted offshore of Georgia and
N Florida. A surface trough extends from 27N65W to 21N69W.
Isolated showers are possible near and just east of the trough
axis. Another surface trough extends from near 21N62W to 18N64W to
13N66W over the E Caribbean. Isolated showers are possible near
the trough. A 1025 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
25N32W.

Weak high pres will develop across the Bahamas today then slide
ENE and exit the area early Tue. This will enable a new cold front
to move off the SE United States coast Mon evening. This cold
front will move SE and extend from Bermuda to the central Bahamas
Wed morning, and weaken from 24N65W to eastern Cuba Thu morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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