[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1241 AM EST Sun Nov 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING in the Western Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast Sun afternoon. The
front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche
early Mon, then move S of the area on Tue night. Strong to near
gale force northerly winds will spread S behind the cold front Sun
night, increasing to minimal gale force S of 25N west of 95W late
Sun night, and spreading across the far SW waters near Veracruz
early Mon through Mon evening. Seas will reach 8 to 11 ft across
the area on Monday. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 08N17W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to
03N30W to 01N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from
02N-07N between 21W-33W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are also noted from 01N-08N between 05W-14W and
from 14N-20N between the west coast of Africa and 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 mb low is centered along the coast near the Big Bend of
Florida near 30N83W. A cold front extends SW from the low to
26N85W to 25N88W, then stationary to 25N91W, then as a warm front
to 28N95W to 28N97W. A surface trough is analyzed from 22N96W to
19N95W. Little to no significant shower activity is observed at
this time.

Expect a moderate to fresh southerly breeze this morning over the
western half of the Gulf of Mexico. The frontal boundary over the
Gulf will stall early this morning before lifting northward later
today. A second cold front will move off the Texas coast this
afternoon, and reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche early Monday. See the section above for more information
about this front and the Gale Warning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from near 21N61W in the Atlantic to
17N63W to 13N64W over the eastern Caribbean. Isolated showers are
seen along and just west of the trough, from 15N-18N between
63W-67W. Elsewhere, the basin is free of significant convection
due to strong subsidence in the region.

Fresh to locally strong trades are forecast across the tropical
waters E of the Windward Islands through this morning. Locally
strong nocturnal trades are forecast along the NW coast of
Colombia through Thu. Elsewhere, moderate trades are expected N
of 17N, while fresh trades are forecast S of 17N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from the Florida/Georgia border near 31N82W
to 32N79W to Cape Hatteras North Carolina. Isolated light showers
are just offshore northern Florida and Georgia.

A 1007 mb low is over the west Atlantic near 30N74W. A recent
ASCAT pass from around 0200 UTC Sunday and recent satellite
imagery suggest there is a second low present near 29N69W as of
0200 UTC. The ASCAT pass shows winds of 25 to 30 kt extending to
120 nm S and SE of this second low. The pass also shows winds of
25 to 30 kt in the NE quadrant of the second low from 120 to 270
nm from the center, or from 30N-32N between 64.5W-67.5W. According
to the 0000 UTC surface analysis, a warm front extends from the
first low eastward to 29N66W to 27N62W. A stationary front
continues from 27N62W to 26N55W to 26N48W. A cold front is from
26N48W to 28N43W to beyond 32N34W. Numerous moderate convection is
seen from 27N northward, between 56W-68W. Scattered showers are
noted elsewhere within 300 nm of the front east of 60W. A 1026 mb
high is centered over the E Atlantic near 26N32W.

The low and front over the western Atlantic will shift N of the
forecast area later this morning. Gales are likely today just N of
the forecast area, N of 31N and E of 63W. Marine conditions will
gradually improve today in the forecast area. High pres will build
over the area this afternoon before shifting E Mon. This will
enable a new cold front to move off the SE United States coast on
Mon evening. Fresh to locally strong SW flow will set up along the
NE Florida coast by early Monday morning ahead of the cold front.
This cold front will extend from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas late
Tue night, and weaken from 28N55W to the SE Bahamas late Thu
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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