[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1255 PM EST Sat Nov 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING in the Western Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front on 26/0900 UTC, will be over the western Gulf of
Mexico from 30N86W to 21N97W. Gale force winds will be west of
front from 22N to 23N W of 96W. Seas will be to 8 ft. Please refer
to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 10N14W to 05N18W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 00N30W to 00N49W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 00N-06N between 05W-14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 24/1500 UTC, a 1010 mb low is centered over the Florida
Panhandle near 30N85W. A forming cold front extends SW from the
low to 25N90W to 23N95W. A surface trough continues to 21N96W to
19N95W. A warm front extends NE from the low to S Georgia near
31N83W. 10-15 kt winds are noted on all sides of the fronts and
trough. In the upper levels slight ridging is over the Gulf of
Mexico with westerly flow. Scattered to broken high clouds are
over most of the Gulf.

Expect the surface low to move E across northern Florida tonight
while dragging a weak cold front E across the northern gulf
waters. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast on Sun
night, and reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche early Mon. See above about the Gale Warning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough extends from the S Bahamas near 21N73W to SW
Haiti near 18N74W. Scattered showers ate over Haiti and Jamaica.
Another surface trough is over the Leeward Islands from 19N60W to
13N62W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. The
monsoon trough near Panama is not producing significant convection
at this time, except for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms on the East Pacific side of Panama and southern
Costa Rica.

Fresh to locally strong trades are forecast across he
tropical waters E of the Windwards tonight into Sun morning.
Locally strong nocturnal trades are forecast to resume along the
NW coast of Colombia tonight and continue through the remainder of
the week. Otherwise moderate trades are expected N of 17N, while
fresh trades are forecast S of 17N through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 24/1500 UTC, a 1012 mb low is over the W Atlantic centered
near 26N71W. A stationary front extends W of the low to 26N73W to
30N78W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 27N between 69W-77W.
A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N42W to 27N57W. A
staionary front continues W to the low near 26N71W. Scattered
moderate convection is N of 26N between 47W-58W. A 1026 mb high is
centered over the E Atlantic near 27N30W.

Fresh to locally strong SW flow will set up along the NE Florida
coast late Sun night ahead of cold front moving off the SE United
States coast on Mon evening. This cold front will extend from
Bermuda to the NW Bahamas late Tue night, and weaken from 28N55W
to the SE Bahamas late Thu night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net