[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING is in effect Friday and Friday night for the offshore
waters from 27N-31N, west of 77W. On Friday, strengthening low
pressure along a frontal system north of the NW Bahamas and east
of N Florida is forecast to cause winds to gale force and high
seas in the area. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of W Africa
near the Sierra Leone/Guinea border near 09N13W to 07N17W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 06N22W to 05N26W to 02N33W to
02N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
01N-10N between 07W-16W, and from 02S-10N between 24W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front that passes through Orlando Florida extends
into the Gulf of Mexico north of Tampa near 28N83W to 25N94W
to 23N95W to the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec near
18N94W, and eventually northwestward to 29N102W in Mexico just to
the south of the Big Bend of Texas. A surface trough extends
from 24.5N95.5W to 27N97W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms cover the area from 27N southward from 89W westward.

A cold front that passes through Miami Florida and Cape Sable
Florida near 25N81W extends to 24.5N84W. Isolated showers are
observed just offshore the east coast of South Florida and in the
Florida Straits from 23N-27N between 79W-81W.

Low pressure developing along the front Thu will generate strong
winds within 120 nm of the Texas coast. Winds and seas will
subside on Fri as the low and front gradually dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area from 65W
westward. An upper level trough extends from NE Venezuela and
Guyana beyond 13N57W, into the Atlantic Ocean. A 700 mb inverted
trough is along 80W from 18N southward to Panama. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from
09N to 24N between 55W and 68W, covering parts of the eastern
Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.

The monsoon trough is along 09N between 73W in Colombia and 84W
in W Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Numerous
moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is noted from
09N-13N between 79W-85W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 21/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.49 in St.
Thomas.

Fresh to occasionally strong winds will continue along the coast
of Colombia through Thu. Trade winds are expected to subside on
Fri. Large long period NE swell over the Atlantic will continue
to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N76W in the Atlantic Ocean to the
east coast of Florida near 29N81W where it becomes stationary and
continues west-southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Some cloud
cover is present with the front, but little to no shower activity
is noted.

A second cold front passes through 32N62W to 28N75W to Miami
Florida to Cape Sable Florida and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. A
surface trough extends from 31N63W to 24N74W. Scattered showers
are mainly from 25N northward and from 73W eastward. Scattered
moderate convection is north of 30N between 55W-61W. Isolated
showers are observed just offshore the east coast of South Florida
and in the Florida Straits from 23N-27N between 79W-81W.

A third cold front passes through 32N10W, to the western part of
the Canary Islands near 28.5N18W, to a 1016 mb low near 25N30W, to
22N40W to 23N42W, dissipating to 29N44W. Scattered showers are
mostly north of 25N and east of 29W. These showers are mostly
located SE of a line extending from 39N10W to 32N20W to 27N28W. A
surface trough is located from 21N26W to 16N30W. Cloud cover is
present near the trough with no significant convection noted.

The 24-hour rainfall total in inches for Freeport Bahamas was
0.75 inches, ending at 21/1200 UTC.

The frontal boundary extending from S Florida to the northern
Bahamas to 31N66W will reach the central Bahamas later today, then
stall Thu through Fri night. Low pressure will form along the
front near the northern Bahamas on Fri, then intensify as it
tracks NE off the SE coast of the United States Fri night through
Sat night. Seas outside the Bahamas will build to between 10 and
16 ft Fri through Sat night.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 22/1200 UTC,
consists of: the threat of SW near gale or gale at the end of the
forecast period in IRVING.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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