[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1233 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W, to
05N30W, 05N40W, and to 03N51W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered
to numerous strong rainshowers are in Liberia and Sierra Leone,
and in the coastal waters, from 05N to 09N between 08W and 13W.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers also are from 01N to 03N
between 27W and 32W, and from 02N to 04N between 37W and 39W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere
from 09N southward from 42W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level W and SW wind flow/some broad
anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

A cold front passes through the SE corner of Georgia, to Florida
near 30N83W, to 27N90W and 26N92W in the Gulf of Mexico. The front
becomes stationary at 26N92W, and it continues to the coast of
Mexico near 20N96W, and eventually northwestward to 29N102W in
Mexico just to the south of the Big Bend of Texas. A surface
trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 20N95W to
18N94W at the northern coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. GALE-FORCE winds are present in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of Mexico. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is from
21N southward between 93W and 95W. Other rainshowers are possible,
23N northward, and from 23N southward from 93W westward.

The current frontal boundary will continue to shift southward
during the next couple of days while the western part remains
stationary. The front will stall from S Florida to the NW Gulf of
Mexico to the Bay of Campeche by Thursday, and will dissipate by
Friday. A second cold front will shift across the northern waters
from late Friday through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area from 64W
westward. An upper level trough. An upper level trough extends
from NE Venezuela beyond 13N57W, into the Atlantic Ocean. A
middle level inverted trough covers the SW corner of the area, and
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A 700 mb inverted trough is
along 80W from 18N southward to Panama.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 09N to 24N between 56W and 68W/69W, covering parts of
the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 75W in Colombia and
beyond the waters that are along the western part of Panama/
at the southernmost point of Costa Rica, along 83W, and beyond
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 12N southward from 76W westward.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 120 nm
of the coast of Panama between 81W and 83W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 21/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.13 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.02 in Curacao.

Fresh to occasionally strong winds will continue along the coast
of Colombia through Thursday. Long period NE swell in the Atlantic
Ocean will continue to impact the waters that are to the east of
the Lesser Antilles through Wednesday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through the SE corner of Georgia, to Florida
near 30N83W, to 27N90W and 26N92W in the Gulf of Mexico. The front
becomes stationary at 26N92W, and it continues to the coast of
Mexico near 20N96W, and eventually northwestward to 29N102W in
Mexico just to the south of the Big Bend of Texas. Rainshowers
are possible to the NW of the line that 32N74W to 30N81W.

A second cold front passes through 32N68W to 29N73W, to the
western coast of Florida near 27N82W. A pre-frontal trough is
within 240 nm to the southeast of the cold front from 24N to 31N.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm
to 180 nm to the W/NW of the line that passes through Bermuda to
29N70W to 25N80W at the eastern coast of Florida.

A third cold front passes through 32N10W, to just to the north of
the Canary Islands near 29N18W, to 28N28W, 24N38W, and 25N40W.
The front becomes stationary at 25N40W, and it continues
northwestward to 32N47W, reaching eventually a 1017 mb low
pressure center that is near 34N51W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 27N to 32N between Africa and 29W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W
eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period
that ended at 21/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
are 0.08 in Bermuda.

The current cold front from 31N70W to 29N75W will shift E of the
area on Wednesday. Another cold front will move across the waters
that are to the N and NE of the Bahamas from Thursday through
Friday, when the front will stall from near 27N65W to the
northern Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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