[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 AM EST Tue Nov 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W to 02N14W. The ITCZ continues from 02N14W, to 01N24W,
04N34W, and 03N45W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are to the east of 10W, and within 90 nm on either
side of the line that runs from 11N15W 07N16W 05N17W 03N17W 03N25W
04N31W 04N42W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from
12N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level W and SW wind flow spans the entire
area.

A stationary front passes through southern Mississippi, to 29N93W,
to a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 27N94W, continuing
to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W, and then continuing inland,
northwestward, into north central Mexico, near 29N104W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the north
of the line that runs from 20N96W at the coast of Mexico, to
23N90W, beyond 26N82W along the western coast of Florida.

A cold front across central Florida will drift southward today,
then become stationary across the Gulf of Mexico along 26N on
Wednesday. A surface low pressure center is expected to develop
offshore the Texas coast on Thursday, then track eastward across
the northern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday, accompanied by
fresh to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A middle
level inverted trough extends from the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, just off the coast of the SE part of the Yucatan Peninsula,
to Panama.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from 18N southward from 83W westward. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are in broken low level clouds, elsewhere,
from 63W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are moving
westward, in broken low level clouds, to the east of the line that
runs from 20N66W to 16N63W to 15N62W.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/09N between 75W in Colombia and
beyond the waters that are along the southern part of Panama,
beyond 84W at the southernmost point of Costa Rica, and beyond into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered strong rainshowers are in the
coastal waters from Colombia to Costa Rica between 76W and 83W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 20/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.72 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Curacao.

Fresh to strong winds will continue along the coast of Colombia
this morning. Trade winds are expected to diminish later today,
then return again tonight and continue through Wednesday night as
a surface ridge builds north of the area. Large long period NE
swell in the Atlantic Ocean will continue to impact the waters
to the east of the Lesser Antilles through Wednesday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center that is
near 33N16W, to 30N29W and 27N39W. The front becomes stationary
at 27N39W, and it continues northwestward to a 1019 mb low
pressure center that is near 31N45W. The stationary front
continues to 33N50W to a 1017 mb low pressure center that is near
32N55W, and continuing still to 30N67W. The front becomes warm at
30N67W, and it continues to 30N69W, and to a 1017 mb low pressure
center that is near 28N72W. A surface trough continues from 28N72W
to 22N77W in SE Cuba. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the
north of the line that runs from 22N73W to 26N60W to 25N40W to
25N30W, beyond 30N10W at the coast of Morocco.

A cold front is along the eastern coast of the U.S.A., passing
through 32N75W, to 28N80W at the eastern coast of Florida, to
27N84W in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, just off the western coast
of Florida. Rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the line
that runs from 24N80W beyond 32N67W.

An upper level trough is digging through Morocco and Algeria,
through Mauritania, to 07N20W in the Atlantic Ocean. Rainshowers
are possible elsewhere to the north of the line that runs from
10N53W to 13N40W to 16N30W, beyond 20N16W at the coast of
Mauritania.

A weak low pressure center that is near 28N72W will meander today,
then merge with a cold front that extends from 31N77W to central
Florida by this evening. A stronger cold front will move southward
across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas from Thursday
through Friday night, and then become stationary on Saturday.
Strong surface high pressure, building southward on Friday and
Saturday, will allow strong winds to develop NE of the Bahamas,
and increase seas outside the Bahamas to 9 to 14 feet, from Friday
through Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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