[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 PM EST Mon Nov 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N11W to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 01N22W to
05N32W, then resumes west of a surface trough at 05N37W and
continues to 02N50W. The surface trough stretches from 10N32W to
02N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to
11N between 10N-20W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to
induce this convective activity. Similar convection is also seen
where the trough meets the ITCZ. A plume of mid to upper clouds
extends NE just ahead of an upper-level trough that crosses the
Lesser Antilles near 15N61W, and continues SW to near the ABC
Islands.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from southern Louisiana
to a weak 1016 mb low pressure centered near 27N96W. A cold front
extends from that low southward to near Tampico, Mexico, then
continues NW, as stationary front, over Mexico. Abundant cloudiness
with embedded showers and isolated tstms are noted in association
with the fronts/low. The cold front will become stationary this
evening. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast late
tonight and merge with the stationary front early on Tue as it
then extends from the near Panama City to weak low pressure of
1018 mb near 27N92W, and from the low to near Veracruz, Mexico.
Then, the cold will reach from near Cross City, in N Florida to
near 26N90W and to Tampico by Tue evening. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas are forecast in the wake of the
front over the western Gulf. The western portion of the front
will stall and then drift northwestward over the far western Gulf
through late Wed night. The eastern portion of the front will
become stationary across the southeastern Gulf by Thu. Weak high
pressure will build over the area in the wake of the front.

A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Gulf and runs from
27N84W to 22N85W. Isolated showers are possible near the trough
axis.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh
to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean, with winds of
25-30 kt near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong
easterly winds are also noted across the waters just E of the
Lesser Antilles. Strong high pressure north of the region will
continue to support fresh to strong winds along the coast of
Colombia through Tue morning. Winds will briefly diminish as a
front passes to the north of the area. The winds will return again
Tue night and continue through Wed night as a new ridge builds
north of the area. Large long period NE swell over the Atlantic
will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles
through Wed. A surface trough previously located over the Gulf of
Honduras has dissipated but isolated showers and tstms are still
affecting the NW Caribbean mainly S of 20N W of 83W. Scattered
showers and tstms are over the SW Caribbean in association with
the monsoon trough. This convective activity is affecting parts of
Panama and Costa Rica. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in
the trade wind flow, are observed across the remainder of the
basin. A diffluent pattern aloft is leading to scattered showers
and thunderstorms across Jamaica and regional waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends along 31N-32N between 30W-60W. This
front enters the forecast region near 31N60W and extends to a
1016 mb low pressure located near 27N70W, then continues SW to the
coast of eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered showers are near the
low center. The front will remain nearly stationary through Tue.
Then, a reinforcing cold front will reach the waters NE Florida
on Wed, and will help the stationary front to transition to a cold
front moving eastward. Strong high pressure over the NE of United
States will bring fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8-9
ft across the waters N of 27N W of 65W late Thu into Fri. The
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean is under the influence of a ridge
anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure situated near 28N50W. A
frontal trough is N of the Cabo Verde Islands and stretches from
the coast of Mauritania near 19N66W to 18N35W. Some low level
clouds are associated with this trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net