[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191149
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 AM EST Mon Nov 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W to 04N16W and 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W,
to 03N31W to 04N42W. One surface trough curves from 09N32W to
07N34W and 05N35W. Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 05N to
10N between 29W and 36W. A second surface trough is along 08N39W
06N40W 04N43W 02N46W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 03N to 08N between 35W and 45W. Scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are from 04N to 06N between 13W and
16W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 01N to 09N between 09W and 20W. An upper level
trough is pulling middle level and high level clouds
northeastward, away from the coasts of Guyana and NE Venezuela.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 14N
southward between 53W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area.

A cold front is in the NW Gulf of Mexico waters, from the SW
corner of Louisiana, to the coastal waters of the middle Texas
Gulf coast, to the edge of the coast of the lower Rio Grande
Valley of Texas. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of
the line that runs from the Florida Panhandle to 23N97W along the
coast of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N
northward from 90W eastward, and from 23N southward from 90W
westward.

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 27N84W, 24N84W, and
22N83W in NW Cuba. Rainshowers are possible, in low level clouds,
that are in the Gulf of Mexico from 25N southward from 84W
eastward.

The current cold front will stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico in
Mexico by tonight. A reinforcing cold front will move off the
Texas coast early on Tuesday, merging with the stationary front,
then extending from the Florida Big Bend to 27N92W to near Vera
Cruz by early Wednesday. Fresh to strong winds are forecast W of
this front in the W central Gulf and W Bay of Campeche through
Wednesday morning. The western part of the front will stall and
then drift northwestward through midweek. The eastern part of the
front will stall across the SE Gulf by Thursday. Surface low
pressure will develop offshore Texas on Thursday, and track E
across the N Gulf of Mexico through Friday, accompanied by fresh
to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NE-to-SW surface trough is along 21N85W to 18N87W to 16N88W
in Guatemala, just to the east of the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 19N southward from 83W westward.

A middle level inverted trough is in the western sections of the
Caribbean Sea. Rainshowers are possible during the rest of the day
in the coastal waters from eastern Honduras southward.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond the waters that are along the southern part of Panama,
beyond 83W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N southward
and from 75W westward in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 19/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.39 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.11 in Curacao.

A Gulf of Honduras surface trough will continue to support
scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms through Monday night,
including in parts of Belize. Strong high pressure, that is
to the north of the region, will continue to support fresh to
strong winds along the coast of Colombia through Tuesday morning.
The wind speeds will diminish briefly, as a front passes N of the
area. Fresh to strong winds will pulse again in this region on
Tuesday night, continuing through Wednesday night, as a new ridge
builds N of the area. Large swell in the Atlantic Ocean will
continue to impact the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through
Wednesday afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough passes through 32N80W off the coast of South
Carolina, to 30N80W, and to 28N80W along the eastern coast of
Florida. Rainshowers are possible from 26N northward from 77W
westward, from the NW Bahamas northward.

A stationary front passes through 32N60W, to a 1016 mb low
pressure center that is near 30N65W, to a second 1016 mb low
pressure center that is near 27N70W, and to 23N74W in the SE
Bahamas. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 28N northward
between 42W and 65W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 18N northward from 40W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 19/0000 UTC...according
to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.87 in Bermuda.

An upper level trough is digging toward southern Morocco. The
trough moves across the Western Sahara and Mauritania, to 09N27W
in the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front passes through 32N02E in
Algeria, through Mali to Mauritania, to 20N20W in the Atlantic
Ocean. A surface trough continues from 20N20W, to 19N30W, 17N40W,
and 17N46W. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side
of the line that runs from 20N17W to 21N26W to 18N34W to 17N39W
to 16N42W to 17N47W.

The southern 1016 mb low pressure center will meander over the
region and then merge with a cold front that will reach from
31N69W to 28N77W on Tuesday evening, then from 28N65W to 25N77W
Wednesday evening. Another cold front will move S across the
waters N and NE of the Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Strong high
pressure building behind this front will support fresh to strong
NE to E winds and seas building to 8 to 14 ft over these waters.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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