[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W, to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to
04N33W, and to 04N51W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 13N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from
24N98W along the coast of Mexico, to 21N96W, to 18N95W at the
northern edge of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Rainshowers are possible from 90W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico
from 25N northward.

Moderate to fresh SE wind flow will set up across the western
Gulf of Mexico today, ahead of the next cold front that is
forecast to reach the coast of Texas tonight. This front will
stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico by Monday night.
A reinforcing cold front will move off the Texas coast early on
Tuesday, merging with the stationary front, then reaching from
the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico on Tuesday night. The
western part will stall Tuesday night,  and then drift northwest
through midweek. The eastern part will continue SE, reaching from
S Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico by late Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southernmost point of a cold front reaches 23N74W in the SE
Bahamas. A surface trough, the remnants of an already-dissipated
front, is along 18N83W 17N86W, into southern Belize. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 15N to
19N southward from 80W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 75W/76W in Colombia
and 83W/84W in the southern parts of Costa Rica. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow spans the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
A middle level inverted trough covers the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. 700 mb NE wind flow also is moving across the SW
corner of the area. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N
southward from 75W westward. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are in the eastern Pacific Ocean from 05N to 08N from
83W eastward.

A surface trough, the remnants of a dissipating stationary front,
is just north of the Gulf of Honduras along 18N83W into southern
Belize. Convergence along this trough will continue to support
scattered rainshowers, as well as fresh to strong winds through
this morning. Strong surface high pressure, building N of the
area, is supporting fresh to strong winds along the coast of
Colombia. These winds and associated seas will prevail through
early Tuesday, as the center of high pressure shifts eastward
across the NW Atlantic Ocean waters. Large swell in the Atlantic
Ocean waters will persist through Tuesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front starts near 32N57W, to a 1016 mb low pressure
center that is near 30N66W. The stationary front continues to a
1015 mb low pressure center that is near 26N70W. A cold front
continues from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 23N74W in the
SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within
30 nm on either side of 26N66W 25N69W 24N70W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere within 300 nm to the NW of the line that passes
through 32N51W to 28N60W to 24N63W, and then within 90 nm to the
NW of the line that runs from 24N63W to 22N72W.

A second cold front passes through 32N08W in Morocco, to 25N15W,
21N23W, and to 21N30W. A surface trough continues from 21N30W
to 21N36W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the frontal
boundary.

The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front is forecast to
stall on Sunday morning, and then weaken gradually, before
dissipating on Sunday night.

Fresh to strong winds and associated seas will continue mainly
within 180 nm NW of the stationary front through today, before
diminishing. The southern part of the front will become
stationary later today. The entire front S of 31N then will
meander in the region through Monday night. A strong area of low
pressure, and an upper level trough moving off the NE United
States, will help to transition this front to a cold front by
midweek.

Upper level diffluent wind flow is
supporting scattered moderate to strong rainshowers, that are
from 25N to 26N between 68W and 69W, just to the east of the 1013
mb low pressure center. Fresh to strong winds are within 120 nm on
either side of the cold front.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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