[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from well over the interior of
Africa to the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12W and to 05N19W,
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions
to the ITCZ axis, which continues to 03N28W to 03N38W and to
03N47W. Scattered moderate convection within 300 nm to the north
of the monsoon trough between the coast of Africa and 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

In the upper levels, a strong jetstream branch originating from
the eastern Pacific extends northeastward across the SW Gulf, to
the Yucatan Peninsula and to across central Florida. At the
surface, high pressure dominates the weather regime in the wake
of the recent cold front passage. Cold air advection with the
northerly flow around a 1025 mb high center located over the
northwestern Gulf 27N94.5W is resulting in broken to overcast
stratocumulus clouds across just about the entire sections of the
eastern and middle Gulf. Broken to overcast low clouds associated
with a surface trough are confined to the southwestern Gulf.
Scattered showers are possible with these clouds. Clear skies are
present generally to the north of 28N, and from 24N to 26N west of
92W. Isolated showers are over some areas of the Straits of
Florida. A rather tight pressure gradient between the high
pressure over the area and the recently departed cold front, now
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, is bringing mainly fresh
northerly winds over the far southeastern Gulf and Straits of
Florida. Gentle to moderate winds in anticyclonic fashion around
the 1025 mb high are elsewhere across the Gulf. Little change is
expected in the present synoptic pattern through Saturday, then
the high pressure will begin to shift eastward on Sun in response
to the next cold front that will be moving across Texas. This
front is forecast to reach the Texas coast Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a cold front extends from central Cuba at 22N78W
to near the Cayman Islands, where it becomes stationary to the
coast of northeastern Honduras as of 15Z. Satellite imagery shows
mainly broken low clouds, with possible scattered showers along
and to the northwest of the front, with the exception of a pocket
of multilayer clouds observed to the south of 19N between 83W and
86W. These clouds contain scattered showers and thunderstorms,
which are being supported by a upper-level disturbance riding
along a strong jet stream branch that northeastward from the
eastern Pacific to across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Yucatan Peninsula. The combination of strong northerly winds
behind the front along with the availability of the low-level
moisture being channeled from the Straits of Florida to western
and central Cuba, has induced periods of heavy rain over some
sections of mainly central Cuba since Thu evening. Periods of
brief heavy rain along with localized flooding are possible over
these same areas through the remainder of the afternoon. The
strong northerly winds are forecast to diminish to fresh winds on
Sat as the pressure gradient over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
and northwestern Caribbean slackens.

A surface trough, the remnants of a former tropical wave, extends
from northwest Colombia to just southwest of Jamaica. Isolated
moderate convection is over NW Venezuela. Isolated showers moving
quickly westward are seen from 13N to 19N between 74W and 79W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms supported by low-
level speed convergence, are over the far southwestern Caribbean
south of 13N between 78W and the coast of Costa Rica. Patches of
low-level moisture containing isolated showers are moving westward
over the remainder of the Caribbean to the east of the cold
front.

The stationary front will gradually weaken through Sat night.
High pressure over the central Atlantic will build southward
through Sun bringing an increase to the trades across the eastern
and central Caribbean that is expected to last into early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front, that is well defined in satellite imagery, is over
the western Atlantic along a position from 32N72W to 25N77W and
central Cuba as of 15Z. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are along and within 60 nm east of the front north
of 27N. Fresh to strong northerly winds are west of the front.
Broken to overcast stratocumulus clouds, with isolated showers are
noted within 60 to 90 nm west of the front, and scattered
stratocumulus clouds are elsewhere west of the front. The front is
forecast to become stationary from near 32N66W to the southeast
Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Sat morning, and slowly weaken through
Mon.

A surface trough extends from near 27N74W to low pressure of 1012
mb near 24N75W and to just north of eastern Cuba. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm northeast and east of
the low. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere along
and near the trough. The low is forecast to dissipate tonight or
Sat along with the trough..

A cold front has dipped into the central Atlantic waters from
32N30W to 28N40W to 27N50w and dissipated to 29N57W. Another cold
front has traversed the Canary Islands and extends from 32N10W to
26N15W. Scattered showers are along the coast of Morocco.

For additional information
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Aguirre
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