[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 17N southward.
Scattered moderate convection is present 12N southward between 76W
to 79W. Precipitation near the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua
are associated to the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough to the
south.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 11N62W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 06N-03N between 17W-22W, and from
08N-05N between 34W-42W. Elsewhere, scattered showers extend
north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 15/21Z a 1008 mb low pressure centered over the coast of
N Carolina is near 35N76W. The cold front extending south of the
low has moved into the Western Caribbean sea as of 21Z. A 1025 mb
high pressure centered over 28N96W has moved into the Gulf of
Mexico with a north to northwest fresh to strong winds over the
north and western portion of the Gulf. Scattered showers are
present near the northwest Gulf coast. Overcast multilayered
clouds are over most of the the Gulf of Mexico due to a strong
upper level jetstream from S Mexico to the Florida Panhandle.

Strong winds and high seas continue over the SE half of the Gulf
behind a cold front extending from the Florida Keys to western
Cuba. Winds and seas will gradually decrease behind the exiting
front. Building high pressure in the wake of the front will
prevail across the Gulf waters through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the S Bahamas near 23N73W to
south of Hispaniola to the north central Caribbean near 16N73W.
Scattered convection is present over the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, the S Bahamas and Eastern Cuba.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above.

A cold front extends S from W Cuba near 22N82W to NE Honduras
near 15N83W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of
the front. 20-25 kt N winds are noted W of front.

In the SW Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is noted south
of 13N between 78W-83W, due to the eastern extent of the Eastern
Pacific monsoon trough.

The front will slowly move southeast, eventually stalling from
Eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by Sat. E swell will maintain
seas 8 ft or above for tropical N Atlantic through the end of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 21Z, a cold front extend from a 1008 mb low pressure
center over the coast of N Carolina near 35N76W. A cold front
extends south from 34N77W to the coast of S Florida near 25N80W
to Western Cuba, into the NW Caribbean sea. Scattered showers
are within the proximity of the boundary out to 90nm.

High pressure over the NW Atlc will shift ESE today ahead of a
cold front moving off the NE Florida coast. The front will reach
from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba late
tonight into Fri. Meanwhile, a trough extending N from the
Windward Passage to the SE Bahamas is stalling and will lose
identity ahead of the cold front Fri and Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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