[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front is in the Gulf of Mexico, along 26.5N82W TO 21N89W.
Expect GALE-FORCE NW-to-N winds, and sea heights ranging from 12
feet to 26 feet, S of 24N W of the cold front. The highest sea
heights are forecast to be near 19N94W. The wind speeds are
forecast to weaken to less than GALE-FORCE late tonight Tuesday/
early in the morning on Wednesday. Please read the HIGH SEAS
FORECAST, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 15N southward,
to NW Venezuela. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the
Caribbean Sea between 60W and 70W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 15N to 17N between 67W and
70W. It is not easy to find precipitation that is related only to
the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 07N28W,
and to 06N39W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 06N to 12N between 16W and 28W, and from 04N
to 10N between 45W and 60W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 06N southward from 16W eastward, and from 03N
to 09N between 30W and 40W. A surface trough is along 06N44W
04N44W 02N43W 01N42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 32N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the
Florida east coast near 28N80W, to the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and ending in the eastern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. GALE-FORCE wind speeds
are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Please read the
SPECIAL FEATURES section. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
cover the Gulf of Mexico, mostly to the west and northwest of the
line that runs from 26N82W along the western coast of Florida to
the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are between the line and 90W. STORM-
FORCE winds are being observed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
eastern Pacific Ocean side of Mexico.

The current cold front will move SE of the Gulf midday on Thursday.
The wind speeds and the sea heights gradually will be decreasing
behind the exiting front. Surface high pressure will build in the
wake of the front and prevail through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea and
the Atlantic Ocean from 30N southward between 60W and 78W. A
surface trough is along 24N66W 20N67W 16N68W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 15N to 17N
between 67W and 70W, and from 17N to 24N between 60W and 72W in
the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean. Comparatively drier
air covers the area that is from 15N northward between 73W and
86W/87W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond 82W in Panama. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 12N southward between 76W and the coast from
Nicaragua southward.

Surface high pressure in the NW Atlantic Ocean is supporting
fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. A surface
trough, that is to the west of Puerto Rico and extending NNE into
the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, will move W across Hispaniola
through today. E swell will cover the tropical north Atlantic
Ocean through mid week. Strong northerly winds and building seas
will follow a cold front that will be entering the Yucatan
Channel this evening. Fresh northerly winds, and sea heights to
10 feet, will spread across the northwestern Caribbean Sea into
Friday behind the front. The wind speeds and the sea heights will
diminish from Friday into Saturday, as the front stalls and
weakens from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the
Florida east coast near 28N80W, to the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
cover the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest of the line that passes
through Bermuda to the NW Bahamas. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are in the cloudiness.

An upper level trough passes through 34N22W to 30N24W to 26N27W.
A cold front passes through 33N25W to 32N27W. A surface trough
continues from 32N27W to 29N36W 29N44W and 30N49W. Rainshowers are
possible to the northwest of the line that passes through 32N18W
to 27N30W to 27N50W.

Surface high pressure, that is in the NW Atlantic, will shift ESE
ahead of a cold front that is moving off the northeast Florida
coast. The front will reach from near 31N74W to the central
Bahamas and central Cuba from late Thursday night into Friday.
A surface trough, that is to the west of Puerto Rico and
extending NNE into the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, will move W across
Hispaniola today, and then through the southern Bahamas by late
Thursday. The surface trough will recurve northward, to the east
of the central Bahamas, ahead of a cold front, as it trough
reaches the Bahamas along 75W early on Friday. The surface trough
will move north of the area on Saturday, as the cold front reaches
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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