[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Storm Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A strong cold front is currently moving eastward across the Gulf
of Mexico. As of 14/0300 UTC, the front extends from N Florida at
31N81W to 23N88W to the eastern Bay of Campeche at 19N92W. Gale
force winds are occurring west of the front S of 26N. Storm force
winds are occurring elsewhere offshore of Veracruz W of 94.5W and
S of 21N. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale on 15/0600
UTC. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends its axis along 65W from 15N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of W Africa near
13N17W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 04N30W to the
coast of South America near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 04N-10N between 15W-19W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-09N between 19W-27W, from 04N-07N between
38W-44W, and from 06N-12N between 48W-56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front extends across the basin, with gale and storm
force winds prevailing over portions of the western Gulf of
Mexico. See the Special Features section above for more details on
the gale force winds. Scattered moderate convection is N of the
Yucatan Peninsula from 21N-23N between 88W-89W. Overcast
multilayered clouds are W of the front mostly due to a strong
upper level jetstream from S Mexico to the Florida Panhandle.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the Leeward and Virgin Islands from
22N63W to 16N67W. Scattered moderate convection from 15N-23N
between 59W-63W. An upper-level low is centered over the Mona
Passage near 18N68W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is
enhancing convection over the Leeward Islands. This system
continues to have a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
during the next 48 hours. This system is expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next couple of days as it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward.

In the southwest Caribbean, scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted south of 12N between 76W-82W, due to the
eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is also inland over N
Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica.

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh trade winds
over most of the Caribbean Sea. The trough across the Virgin
Islands extending NE into the adjacent Atlantic will move across
Puerto Rico through late tonight, and then across Hispaniola Wed.
The tropical wave over the southeast Caribbean will move westward
reaching Hispaniola and the ABC Islands by late Wednesday and
early Thursday.

Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow a cold front
entering the Yucatan Channel late Wed. Expect enhanced shower and
thunderstorm activity with periods of heavy rain for portions of
the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras and the adjacent waters of
the northwest Caribbean through early Fri. Fresh northerly winds
and seas to 8 ft will spread across the northwest Caribbean into
Fri behind the front, then diminish Fri into Sat as the front
stalls and weakens from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 30N-32N
between 75W-77W. A 1030 mb high is over the central Atlantic near
36N52W. The tail-end of a cold front is over the E Atlantic from
31N30W to 26N37W. scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.
A 1022 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 38N13W.

High pressure over the NW Atlc will shift ESE
ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast
tonight. The front will reach from near 31N74W to the central
Bahamas and central Cuba late Thu night into Fri. Meanwhile a
trough across the NE Caribbean and adjacent Atlc will move
westward across Puerto Rico tonight, across Hispaniola Wed, and
through the southern Bahamas by late Thu. As the trough reaches
the Bahamas along 75W early Fri it will recurve northward to the
east of the central Bahamas ahead of the cold front, then move
north of the area Sat as the cold front reaches from Bermuda to
eastern Cuba.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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