[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1221 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale...

A strong cold front is expected to move into the northwest Gulf
of Mexico by Monday afternoon. Winds up to gale force will follow
this front over the western Gulf as it reaches from near Pensacola,
Florida to Tampico, Mexico by late Monday. This feature will
likely bring strong gales over the southwest Gulf by Tuesday,
possibly reaching storm force off Veracruz, as the front reaches
from near Tampa, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Winds and seas
will diminish on Wednesday as the front sweeps southeast of the
region. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 29W and south of
09N. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted along and
in the vicinity of the wave, enhanced by the proximity of the
ITCZ.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 41W south of
10N. Scattered moderate convection is present 120 nm on either
side of the wave axis. This activity is enhanced by the proximity
of the ITCZ.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W and south of
16N. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 13N between
51W and 57W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along Central America and the
EPAC along 88W. No convection is observed with this wave at this
time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 09N20W, then transitions to ITCZ from that point to 04N28W. The
ITCZ resumes near 04N31W to 05N40W, then from 05N43W to 03N51W.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection within 150 nm north and
90 nm south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from 26N82W to a 1012 mb surface low
near 24N96W. The front continues south from the low to 19N94W.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted in scatterometer data
north of the front.

The front will lift north and weaken today ahead of a stronger
cold front moving off the Texas coast by late Mon. Strong winds
and building seas will follow this new front, reaching gale force
over the NW Gulf by late Mon. Strong gales will follow the front
over the western Gulf as it reaches from Panama City Florida to
Coatzacoalcos Mexico early Tue, with brief storm conditions
possible off Veracruz. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Wed
into Thu as the front sweeps southeast of the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient prevails across the basin enhancing
fresh to strong winds pulsing through the Windward Passage. This
pattern will persist through tonight, with areas of fresh strong
winds also pulsing off the central coast of Colombia, near Cabo
Beata on the southern coast of Hispaniola, and through the Gulf of
Guacanayabo in southeast Cuba.

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with scattered
moderate convection. Refer to the section above for more details.
This wave is expected reach the waters northeast of the Leeward
Islands by tonight, then drift through the eastern Caribbean by
mid week. As the tropical wave shifts west, a cold front will
move into the southwest Atlantic area to the north, weakening the
subtropical ridge and allowing winds across the basin to diminish
through mid week. The cold front will also be moving across the
Gulf of Mexico, and bring fresh to strong N winds and seas to 12
ft into the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Wed through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted north of a cold front
extending from 31N69W to 26N80W. Seas to 8 ft in northerly swell
are also apparent, at least over waters north of 30N. Subsidence
associated with a sharp upper-level trough is maintaining
generally fair weather from Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos, but
upper divergence on the eastern side of the upper trough is
supporting showers and thunderstorms across the waters northeast
of the Leeward Islands. Buoy and altimeter satellite data show 4
to 6 ft seas over open waters.

Expect for the front to stall and weaken over the northern
Bahamas today. The front will lift north and becoming diffuse on Mon
ahead of a stronger front that will move off the northeast
Florida coast by late Tue. The second front will reach from
31N73W to western Cuba Wed, when a reinforcing push of cold air
will bring strong northerly winds and building seas to the waters
north of 27N. As this happens, troughing on the northern end of a
tropical wave will move into the waters northeast of the Leeward
Islands Mon and Tue, coming into phase with favorable conditions
aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough, thus enhancing
convection, lowering surface pressure and allowing surface winds
to increase. The resultant developing low pressure will move N-NW,
reaching north of Puerto Rico Wed, before interacting with the
stalling front Thu well to the northeast of the southern Bahamas.
Strong to near-gale force winds are possible with this low, and
it currently has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development
by mid week.

Farther east, 1029 mb high pressure is centered near 35N38W,
supporting mostly fresh trade winds over the deep tropics. Various
recent altimeter passes indicate 8 to 11 ft swell across most of
the region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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