[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Strong Gulf of Mexico Cold Front...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf of
Mexico this morning and continue moving southeast through the
basin. A pre-frontal squall line with strong thunderstorms is
developing within 180 nm ahead of the front, and will reach the
northwest Gulf waters this morning enhancing convection mainly
north of 27N. Brief gale-force winds are possible in the squalls,
with seas ranging between 6-9 ft. Refer to the Offshore Waters
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers OFFNT4/FZNT4 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 21W from 02N-12N, moving
west at about 10 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance at 700
mb and TPW imagery show high moisture content associated with this
wave. Scattered showers are noted within 105 nm on either side of
the axis.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 51W from 01N to 12N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is also noted in model
guidance at 700 mb. TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture
content near and east of the wave axis. Scattered showers extend
90 nm on either side of the wave from 05N to 08N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 09N13W to 03N23W to 03N31W.
The ITCZ extends from 03N31W to 07N47W. Aside from the convection
related to the two tropical waves, scattered showers are within
150 nm north of both boundaries between 29W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure centered over the northwest Atlantic
extends across eastern half of the basin. To the west, scattered
moderate convection is developing north of 27N and west of 90W.
This activity is expected to increase overnight as a squall line
develops ahead of the cold front mentioned above in the Special
Features section.

Winds and seas will begin to increase across the Gulf overnight
as return flow sets up across the western half of the Gulf ahead
of a strong cold front expected to move off the Texas coast by
this morning with strong S to SW wind flow ahead of it, and gale-
force wind gusts. The front will reach from the mouth of the
Mississippi River to near Veracruz, Mexico this evening, from
near Tampa Bay to the central Yucatan Peninsula by Fri evening,
then stall across the Straits of Florida to Cancun, Mexico on Sat
morning before drifting NW through Sun. For more information in
regards to this feature, see the Special Features section above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the west Atlantic to north-central
Cuba. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of Jamaica,
Hispaniola and along the Windward Passage in the vicinity of a
surface trough that extends to the north of La Mona Passage. In
the far southwest Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is
south of 11N near NW Colombia and the coast of Panama due to the
monsoon trough proximity. Strengthening high pressure over the
western Atlantic through this afternoon will help freshen the
tradewinds across the central Caribbean. The high will then
continue to shift eastward through the weekend to produce fresh
to strong tradewinds across the Caribbean east of 80W, especially
the south-central Caribbean. These winds will be strongest at
night close to the coast of Colombia. A Gulf of Mexico cold front
will move SE reaching the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean
this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area near 31N49W extends to 23N74W. A
surface trough extends from 30N48W to 20N68W. Scattered showers
are observed along and within 105 nm to the east of the trough.
Large north swell will affect the waters north of 28N east of 25W
through this morning due to Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar,
currently centered north of the area.

The cold front will continue moving east while weakening. Strong
high pressure to the N will shift eastward along 33N. Moderate
swell associated with Oscar over the central Atlantic will affect
waters E of the Bahamas today. Another cold front will move
offshore of N Florida early Sat with strong southerly flow ahead
of it on Friday. The front is expected to weaken from near 31N73W
to the Florida Keys on Saturday before shifting northwest through
Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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