[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
751 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively
strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support
winds pulsing to gale force within 75 nm of the coast of Colombia
between 74W-76W. These conditions will recur during the evening
and overnight hours for the next few days. Please read the High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. This
information also is found at the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa, transitioning to
the ITCZ near 07N13W and continuing to 03N26W to 01S45W. Scattered
showers are noted along the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is in the NW Gulf of Mexico, passing through south
Mississippi, and into east coastal sections of Mexico near
21N97W. Scattered moderate convection are present along the front
mainly north of 25N between 86W-94W.

A surface ridge extends from a high pressure center that is to the
NE of the northern Bahamas, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh
to strong SE return flow will continue through early this
afternoon. The current NW Gulf of Mexico cold front will extend
from the Big Bend of Florida to Veracruz Mexico on Friday morning.
The front will stall and weaken from central Florida to the Bay
of Campeche on Saturday. Fresh to near-gale force NW winds are
expected in the Bay of Campeche from tonight through Saturday
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia.

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

Scattered showers are possible elsewhere, in scattered to broken
low level clouds, except for the area that is from 13N southward
between 66W and 77W.

High pressure NE of the northern Bahamas will shift east-northeast
slowly through Saturday morning, allowing the continuation of
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea.
Minimal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia are forecast
for tonight. Northerly swell will propagate into the north-
central Caribbean Sea through Friday morning. Fresh to strong
winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Friday
morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the central Atlantic near 31N52 and
continues to a 1014 mb low centered near 25N56W. A surface trough
extends from the low to 19N56W to 14N61W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted with these features between 40W-59W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward from 50W eastward. A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb
high pressure center that is near 37N31W, through 32N39W, to
28N42W, 21N44W, and 15N52W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N19W, about
240 nm to the SSW of the SW part of the Canary Islands, and about
190 nm to the west of the coast of the Western Sahara. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow, that is associated with the center,
covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N northward from 34W eastward.
Clouds and possible rainshowers are from 180 nm to 560 nm of the
center in the N quadrant, and from 350 nm to 500 n m of the center
in the S quadrant.

High pressure NE of the northern Bahamas will shift east-northeast
slowly through Saturday morning allowing for the winds and seas
to diminish gradually through early Friday. A cold front will
move off NE Florida on Friday evening, stall N of the Bahamas on
Saturday, and then lift N of the area as a warm front from Sunday
through Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/MT
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