[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
806 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively
strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support
winds pulsing to gale force, within 60 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 74W and 77W. The gale force winds will recur
each night during the evening and overnight hours, through Friday
morning, while this surface weather pattern persists. Please read
the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.
This information also is found at the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 09N13W to
08N16W and 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 01N30W,
crossing the Equator along 35W, to the coast of Brazil near
01S47W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are within 150 nm of the coast of Brazil
between 33W and 50W. isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N southward from 46W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is along the Texas coast. It is set to move into the
NW Gulf of Mexico during the day today. Numerous strong
rainshowers are in the Texas coastal waters and coastal plains
from 27N northward from 93W westward.

A surface ridge from the Atlantic Ocean into the east-central
Gulf will maintain fresh to strong SE return flow this morning. A
cold front reaching the Texas coast later today will extend from
SE Louisiana to Tampico Mexico this evening, and from the big bend
of Florida to Veracruz Mexico Fri morning. The front will weaken
and stall from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche on Sat.
Strong NW winds are expected S of 20N west of the front near the
Veracruz coast tonight through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia.

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico, due to the
remnants of a cold front.

High pressure E of Jacksonville FL will shift eastward slowly through
Fri. Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central
Caribbean Sea through Sat morning. Winds will pulse one more time
to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Large N
swell will propagate into the NE Caribbean Sea through Fri
morning. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Gulf of
Honduras tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N51W, to 30N52W, and 26N55W. A
surface trough continues from 26N55W, to a 1013 mb low pressure
center that is near 22N56W. The trough continues to 17N59W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally
strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 15N northward
between 50W and 60W. High-level clouds are within 300 nm on either
side of the line 23N41W 13N52W 08N60W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward from 50W eastward. A surface ridge extends from a 1032
mb high pressure center that is near 38N31W, through 32N39W, to
25N45W, and 16N51W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N19W, about
180 nm to the SSW of the Canary Islands. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow, that is associated with the center, covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 17N northward from 34W eastward. Clouds and possible
rainshowers are within 400 nm to the NNE of the center, and within
600 nm to the south of the center.

High pressure E of Jacksonville FL will shift eastward slowly through
Fri. Winds and seas will gradually diminish NE of the Bahamas
through Fri morning. A cold front will move off NE Florida Fri
evening, stall N of the Bahamas Sat then lift N of the area as a
warm front Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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