[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290457
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively
strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support
winds pulsing to gale force, within 75 nm to 150 nm of the coast
of Colombia. The gale force winds will recur each night during the
evening and overnight hours, through Friday morning, while this
surface weather pattern persists. Please read the High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. This information
also is found at the following website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 09N13W to 04N17W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near
01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between 16W-
28W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along
the coast of Brazil from 03S-01N between 39W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a west Atlantic Ocean 1024 mb high
near 30N74W, across N Bahamas, to the Yucatan Peninsula near
20N90W. The Gulf of Mexico has 15-20 kt SE surface flow. Seas are
8-10 ft over a large area of the W Gulf W of 90W. Scattered
moderate convection is along the Texas coast from 27N-30N between
94W-97W due to a cold front approaching the coast. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is also inland over E Texas and NW
Louisiana with the potential for severe weather due to a squall
line.

The current surface ridge, from the W Atlantic Ocean into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico, will maintain fresh-to-strong SE return
flow through Thursday. The current Texas cold front will enter
the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight. Fresh-to-strong southerly winds
will develop within 60 nm to the east of the front, and in the
Louisiana adjacent waters on Thursday afternoon, continuing
through the evening hours. The front will reach from the Florida
Big Bend to Tampico on Friday afternoon, and then the front will
stall across central Florida on Saturday morning while it weakens.
High pressure building in the wake of the front will extend to
southern Mexico and support fresh to near gale force winds in the
western Bay of Campeche Thu night to Sat morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia.

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information.

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico, due to the
remnants of a cold front.

Surface high pressure, that is to the NE of Great Abaco Island in
the Bahamas, will support fresh-to-strong trade winds in the
south central Caribbean Sea through Saturday morning. The wind
speeds will pulse to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia
each night through Friday morning. The latest scatterometer pass
confirms a gale along the coast of N Colombia. Large N to NE
swell will continue to propagate into the northern Caribbean Sea
through Friday morning. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the
Gulf of Honduras tonight and on Thursday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 29/0300 UTC, the tail-end of a cold front extends from
32N52W to 26N55W. A 1014 mb low is further S near 22N56W. A
surface trough extends from 25N55W to the low to 17N59W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm E of the front and trough.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 50W
eastward. A surface ridge is along 35W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N22W SW of
the Canary Islands. Scattered showers are SW and N of the Canary
Islands.

The cold front will move E Thu and be N of 32N Fri. The surface
low and trough will remain quasi-stationary Thu and Fri then
dissipate on Sat. Strong NE winds will affect the adjacent waters
that are to the west of the central and southern Bahamas through
early Fri, including the Atlantic Ocean approaches. Large north
swell will impact the waters that are to the NE of the Bahamas
through Fri morning. A new cold front will move off NE Florida
early on Fri evening, stall N of the Bahamas on Sat, and lift N
of the area as a warm front on Sat.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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