[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively
strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support
winds pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia. The gale
force winds will recur each night during the evening and overnight
hours, through Friday morning, while this surface weather pattern
persists. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details. This information also is found at the
following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W,
crossing the Equator along 32W, to the coast of Brazil near
03S43W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 04N southward between 24W and 35W. rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 27/0300 UTC, a dissipating cold front extends from S
Florida near 26N80W to S Alabama near 30N88W. Isolated showers
are over S Florida. The remainder of basin is void of
precipitation.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from the eastern
Pacific Ocean, across Mexico, and into the westernmost parts of
the Gulf of Mexico. Ridge axis is along 90W.

A surface ridge that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean into
the central Gulf of Mexico will maintain SE return flow through
Thursday. A cold front entering the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday
will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf on Friday,
and then weaken from central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula
on Friday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia.

Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for
additional information.

Scattered rainshowers are noted over the Windward Islands, inland
over Hispaniola, and over N Colombia.

An upper level trough passes across the Bahamas, Cuba, and
Hispaniola, and the central Caribbean with axis along 72W.

High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to
locally strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea
during the next several days. The winds will pulse to minimal gale
force along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours
through Friday morning. Large N to NE swells will propagate into
NE Caribbean passages on Wednesday and Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the W Atlantic from 32N58W to 27N64W to
25N67W to 24N75W to S Florida near 26N80W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough, the remnanats of a
dissipating stationary front is over the central Atlantic from
28N56W to 22N62W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
trough. A 1034 mb high is centered E of the Azores near 38N21W. A
ridge axis extends SW from the high to the E Atlantic near 26N50W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N26W, about
600 nm to the west of the coast of the Western Sahara.

The current cold front will push southward across the Bahamas
today. Strong NE winds will pulse in the Windward Passage through
Friday. Large NE swell will impact the waters NE of the Bahamas
through Thursday. A cold front will move off NE Florida on Friday
night, and then stall on Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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