[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230451
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1251 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast this evening for the eastern portion of the following
areas: AGADIR, TARFAYA, and CANARIAS. Winds will subside by
tomorrow morning with near gale conditions persisting on Friday
over AGADIR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from Sierra Leone on the African
coast near 09N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to
01N33W to just N of the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Isolated
moderate and strong convection is present from 03N to 05N between
05W and 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure has pushed SE to the Mississippi Delta near 29N89W.
The high will slide ESE over the NE corner of the Gulf on Fri,
over the Bahamas on Sat and to the east of the Bahamas on Sun.
Increasing SE return flow will develop over the Gulf during the
first half of next week. Return flow over the Gulf will become
fresh to strong on Mon and Tue as the pressure gradient tightens
between high pressure east of the Gulf and developing low pressure
over the Central Plains States. A trough will develop in the
Yucatan peninsula each evening, and shift westward across the
southwestern corner of the Gulf during the overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for
additional information.

A weakening cold front extends SW from SE Cuba near 20N77W to the
Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W. The cold front will continue to
weaken and is expected to dissipate by dawn. Only patchy
cloudiness and isolated showers were observed along and up to 150
nm NW of this boundary. High pressure ridging extending SW from
the Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to locally strong trade
winds across central and western Caribbean Sea during the next
several days. Winds will reach near gale force along the NW coast
of Colombia during the overnight hours. Fresh to strong winds can
be expected over the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba and
Hispaniola.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N60W, then
continues SE to 25N67W, then across the far SE Bahamas to SE Cuba
near 21N75W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
found along and up to 150 nm NW of the front to the N of 26N. The
front will continue moving SE and gradually slow down, eventually
reaching from 32N48W to Hispaniola on Sun. It is possible that
another cold front will drop southward from 32N on Monday in
conjunction with a developing area of low pressure off the east
coast of the United States which will cut off from the mid
latitude flow. Model guidance suggests the front will pass S over
the Bahamas as it weakens.

Otherwise, strong 1036 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores
near 34N33W dominates the eastern two thirds of the basin and
ridges southwestward to the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are observed in satellite-derived wind data over the
tropical Atlc N of 05N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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