[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210507
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
107 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends across the far west Atlantic. Gale force
southwest winds are noted ahead of the front to 75W and north of
30N, with seas building to 9 ft. The Gale Warning will continue
through the next 24-30 hours as the front continues moving east
across the west Atlantic. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast
product under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSTAT2 for more
details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The same cold front described above extends across the east Gulf
of Mexico from 27N82W TO 21N97W. Near-gale force northwesterly
winds with frequent gusts up to gale-force are noted behind the
front north of 27N between 83W-90W, with seas up to 9 ft. These
conditions will continue through the next 12 hours. Please refer
to the High Seas Forecast product under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02
KNHC/HSTAT2 for more details.

...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the areas: AGADIR, TARFAYA, and CANARIAS. The
OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid
until 21/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a N or NE near-
gale or gale in AGADIR, TARFAYA, CANARIAS, and CAP BLANC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across the coast of Africa near 11N16W
to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 00N31W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered showers are within 75 nm either
side of the ITCZ between 29W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about the Gale Warning currently in effect.

A cold front extends from 27N82W to 20N96W then becomes stationary
across eastern Mexico. A secondary front is developing over the
northeast Gulf waters extending from 30N83W to 28N86W. Scattered
showers are expected along both fronts. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh winds across the basin, except where the
Gale Warning is in effect.

Expect for the fronts to merge as they continue moving east with
showers. High pressure will build in the wake of the fronts and
prevail through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the webpage, www.nadma.gd, for
additional information.

A surface ridge anchored over the central Atlantic extends across
the basin. A 1006 mb low is centered over north Colombia. The
resultant surface pressure gradient will support fresh to locally
strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea during
the next several days. Winds will reach near-gale force along the
northwest coast of Colombia during the overnight hours.

A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel tonight and enter
the northwest Caribbean through the day enhancing winds/seas.
The front will then become stationary and dissipate through the
next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the Gale Warning in the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front enters the far west Atlantic west of 82W. An area of
showers and thunderstorms is noted ahead of the front between
70W-78W. To the east, an upper level trough is in the central
Atlantic supporting a surface trough that extends from 31N47W to
26N53W. Scattered showers are observed within 150 nm east of the
trough. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin
anchored by a 1034 mb high centered near 36N26W.

The surface trough will move eastward today. The front will
continue moving eastward with convection, stalling and weakening
this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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